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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ buccaneers week 9, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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LAR logo
LARRams
3-4
13
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
2 mph
16
TBBuccaneers
3-5
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
7
6
0
13
Buccaneers
3
3
0
10
16

Spread

LAR logo
TB logo
3
P

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
206
323
Total Plays
55
79
Yards / Play
3.7
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.13
Passing Yards
138
272
Comp/Att
13/27(48%)
36/58(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.17
-0.08
Rushing Yards
68
51
Rush Attempts
24
20
Yards / Rush
2.8
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
9
18
Passing 1st downs
6
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
27%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
15
21
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-27
-8
Sack EPA
-5.60
-3.86
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
53
55
Penalty EPA
-3.31
-5.90

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+95
Home nfelo
1,576
Away nfelo
1,528
Home Field
+38.8
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
-14.0
Net QB Adjustment
+8.3
Home QB Adjustment
-3.2
Away QB Adjustment
-11.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
-11.4
Value
Ptile
01/23
8.7
94
01/30
3.5
78
02/13
0.0
53
09/08
-8.1
6
09/18
1.9
67
09/25
-0.8
46
10/03
-6.4
11
10/09
-0.8
46
10/16
1.2
61
10/30
1.3
61
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.2
Value
Ptile
01/16
1.7
66
01/23
-1.1
44
09/11
-1.8
39
09/18
-2.1
36
09/25
2.4
72
10/02
9.9
96
10/09
4.3
83
10/16
0.0
53
10/23
1.3
61
10/27
-0.4
50

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Rams logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
27
15
Yards / Game
32
10
Passing Yards / Game
26
21
Rushing Yards / Game
26
15

EPA

EPA / Play
27
18
EPA / Pass
27
19
EPA / Rush
19
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
32
Interceptions / Game
22
27
Fumbles / Game
11
7
Turnover EPA / Game
4
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
8
4th Down Efficiency
1
25
RZ Efficiency
14
30
Buccaneers Offense vs Rams Defense
Buccaneers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
25
20
Yards / Game
14
18
Passing Yards / Game
11
11
Rushing Yards / Game
32
13

EPA

EPA / Play
23
19
EPA / Pass
11
26
EPA / Rush
32
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
3
Interceptions / Game
8
7
Fumbles / Game
24
30
Turnover EPA / Game
16
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
21
4th Down Efficiency
12
31
RZ Efficiency
24
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/23
3
W
W
O
01/30
3
W
L
U
02/13
3
W
L
U
09/08
-21
L
L
U
09/18
4
W
L
O
09/25
8
W
W
U
10/03
-15
L
L
U
10/09
-12
L
L
U
10/16
14
W
W
U
10/30
-17
L
L
O
TB logo

Buccaneers

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/16
16
W
W
O
01/23
-3
L
L
O
09/11
16
W
W
U
09/18
10
W
W
U
09/25
-2
L
L
U
10/02
-10
L
L
O
10/09
6
W
L
U
10/16
-2
L
L
U
10/23
-18
L
L
U
10/27
-5
L
L
O