LARRams
3-4
13
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
2 mph
16
TBBuccaneers
3-5
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
7
6
0
13
Buccaneers
3
3
0
10
16
Spread
3
P
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
206
323
Total Plays
55
79
Yards / Play
3.7
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.13
Passing Yards
138
272
Comp/Att
13/27(48%)
36/58(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.17
-0.08
Rushing Yards
68
51
Rush Attempts
24
20
Yards / Rush
2.8
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
9
18
Passing 1st downs
6
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
27%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
15
21
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-27
-8
Sack EPA
-5.60
-3.86
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
53
55
Penalty EPA
-3.31
-5.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+95
Home nfelo
1,577
Away nfelo
1,529
Home Field
+38.8
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
-14.0
Net QB Adjustment
+8.3
Home QB Adjustment
-3.2
Away QB Adjustment
-11.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-11.4
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
15
Yards / Game
32
10
Passing Yards / Game
26
21
Rushing Yards / Game
26
15
EPA
EPA / Play
27
18
EPA / Pass
27
19
EPA / Rush
19
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
32
Interceptions / Game
22
27
Fumbles / Game
11
7
Turnover EPA / Game
4
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
8
4th Down Efficiency
1
25
RZ Efficiency
14
30
Buccaneers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
20
Yards / Game
14
18
Passing Yards / Game
11
11
Rushing Yards / Game
32
13
EPA
EPA / Play
23
19
EPA / Pass
11
26
EPA / Rush
32
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
3
Interceptions / Game
8
7
Fumbles / Game
24
30
Turnover EPA / Game
16
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
21
4th Down Efficiency
12
31
RZ Efficiency
24
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U