LARRams
6-7
28
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
59°F
8 mph
13
TBBuccaneers
6-8
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
59°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
8
14
0
22
Buccaneers
3
3
7
0
13
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
285
429
Total Plays
54
81
Yards / Play
5.3
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.20
Passing Yards
--
349
Comp/Att
13/27(48%)
30/54(56%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.29
-0.33
Rushing Yards
89
80
Rush Attempts
27
22
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
23
Passing 1st downs
11
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
36%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
17
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
1
4
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.70
-19.42
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-23
Sack EPA
--
-6.35
Penalties
9
1
Penalty Yards
64
--
Penalty EPA
-6.07
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model61.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+124
Home nfelo
1,469
Away nfelo
1,411
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-30.2
Home QB Adjustment
-8.9
Away QB Adjustment
+21.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
77.3
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+21.3
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-8.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
23
Yards / Game
22
29
Passing Yards / Game
16
17
Rushing Yards / Game
20
1
EPA
EPA / Play
25
18
EPA / Pass
18
25
EPA / Rush
22
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
26
Interceptions / Game
12
9
Fumbles / Game
9
26
Turnover EPA / Game
16
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
25
4th Down Efficiency
15
9
RZ Efficiency
19
17
Buccaneers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
14
Yards / Game
12
13
Passing Yards / Game
7
18
Rushing Yards / Game
16
15
EPA
EPA / Play
15
13
EPA / Pass
15
9
EPA / Rush
9
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
20
Interceptions / Game
22
11
Fumbles / Game
3
32
Turnover EPA / Game
21
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
13
4th Down Efficiency
23
6
RZ Efficiency
8
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
4-5-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U