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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ cardinals week 4, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAR logo
LARRams
2-1
17
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
13
ARICardinals
1-2
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
3
0
7
17
Cardinals
0
10
3
0
13

Spread

LAR logo
+9.5

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
288
420
Total Plays
55
75
Yards / Play
5.2
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.20
Passing Yards
247
302
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
27/47(57%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.10
Rushing Yards
41
118
Rush Attempts
23
25
Yards / Rush
1.8
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.41
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
12
26
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
1
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
43%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-5.73
-18.57
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-19
-23
Sack EPA
-7.66
-9.25
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
84
45
Penalty EPA
-5.97
-7.75

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model75.1%
Spread Pick
LAR logo
Rams+9.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.1%
Cover Probability
55.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+119
Home nfelo
1,602
Away nfelo
1,523
Home Field
+31.9
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.0
Home QB Adjustment
-10.6
Away QB Adjustment
-18.6
Market Regression
-9.1
Final Difference
191.9
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-18.6
Value
Ptile
12/21
-4.6
22
12/28
0.7
54
11/22
-5.0
15
12/13
-6.3
10
12/17
1.3
60
12/27
-1.4
40
01/03
-0.8
46
09/12
-10.4
2
09/18
-2.1
34
09/25
-3.0
27
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-10.6
Value
Ptile
12/06
4.9
81
12/10
4.2
79
12/20
0.2
52
12/27
1.1
58
01/03
-3.9
22
01/16
1.5
62
01/24
-9.2
3
09/11
1.8
63
09/18
4.1
79
09/25
-13.2
0

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Rams logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
32
14
Yards / Game
32
2
Passing Yards / Game
23
18
Rushing Yards / Game
31
9

EPA

EPA / Play
32
2
EPA / Pass
32
3
EPA / Rush
31
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
7
Interceptions / Game
30
14
Fumbles / Game
16
5
Turnover EPA / Game
1
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
14
4th Down Efficiency
28
13
RZ Efficiency
24
17
Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Cardinals logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
6
22
Yards / Game
8
9
Passing Yards / Game
5
13
Rushing Yards / Game
17
16

EPA

EPA / Play
20
17
EPA / Pass
21
18
EPA / Rush
20
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
2
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
29
20
Turnover EPA / Game
7
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
10
4th Down Efficiency
14
32
RZ Efficiency
5
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
-3
L
P
U
11/29
-24
L
L
U
12/06
-24
L
L
U
12/13
7
W
W
U
12/17
8
W
W
O
12/27
6
W
W
U
01/03
-3
L
L
U
09/12
-28
L
L
U
09/18
6
W
W
U
09/25
5
W
W
O
ARI logo

Cardinals

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
24
W
W
U
12/10
3
W
L
U
12/20
23
W
W
O
12/27
30
W
W
U
01/03
-30
L
L
U
01/16
6
W
L
U
01/24
-34
L
L
O
09/11
-2
L
L
U
09/18
33
W
W
U
09/25
-15
L
L
O