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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ cardinals week 13, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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LAR logo
LARRams
5-6
19
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
6
ARICardinals
3-8
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
6
7
3
19
Cardinals
6
0
0
0
6

Spread

LAR logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
288
224
Total Plays
67
52
Yards / Play
4.3
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.34
Passing Yards
169
119
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
11/29(38%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
4.1
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.59
Rushing Yards
119
105
Rush Attempts
36
19
Yards / Rush
3.3
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
18
14
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
35%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
6
1
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
0%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.43
-6.71
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-18
-29
Sack EPA
-3.65
-6.11
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
15
54
Penalty EPA
-1.18
-7.26

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model54.0%
Spread Pick
ARI logo
Cardinals+3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.7%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+24
Home nfelo
1,389
Away nfelo
1,389
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-42.9
Home QB Adjustment
-17.5
Away QB Adjustment
+25.4
Market Regression
-10.8
Final Difference
-27.8
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+25.4
Value
Ptile
09/19
-2.8
30
09/26
-0.4
46
10/03
-1.3
41
10/10
-6.7
10
10/17
-0.6
45
10/24
-0.9
43
10/31
4.3
77
11/14
2.9
69
11/21
3.7
74
11/28
4.3
78
D. Anderson headshot

D. Anderson

Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-17.5
Value
Ptile
12/27
-3.7
26
01/03
-6.0
14
09/12
1.2
56
09/19
-7.3
9
09/26
-4.1
23
10/03
-10.2
4
11/07
-4.8
18
11/14
-4.2
22
11/21
0.7
53
11/29
-5.5
15

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Rams logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
26
30
Yards / Game
27
28
Passing Yards / Game
16
27
Rushing Yards / Game
25
30

EPA

EPA / Play
30
14
EPA / Pass
26
19
EPA / Rush
29
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
2
Interceptions / Game
13
11
Fumbles / Game
1
2
Turnover EPA / Game
19
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
11
4th Down Efficiency
11
21
RZ Efficiency
31
1
Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Cardinals logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
26
11
Yards / Game
31
18
Passing Yards / Game
22
18
Rushing Yards / Game
32
17

EPA

EPA / Play
31
5
EPA / Pass
31
7
EPA / Rush
25
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
18
Interceptions / Game
21
19
Fumbles / Game
22
10
Turnover EPA / Game
5
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
3
4th Down Efficiency
24
19
RZ Efficiency
29
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

5-5
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
-2
L
W
U
09/26
14
W
W
O
10/03
17
W
W
U
10/10
-38
L
L
O
10/17
3
W
W
U
10/24
-1
L
W
U
10/31
10
W
W
U
11/14
-3
L
W
O
11/21
-17
L
L
O
11/28
3
W
W
O
ARI logo

Cardinals

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
-34
L
L
O
09/26
1
W
L
O
10/03
-31
L
L
O
10/10
10
W
W
O
10/24
-12
L
L
U
10/31
-3
L
L
O
11/07
-3
L
W
O
11/14
-18
L
L
O
11/21
-18
L
L
U
11/29
-21
L
L
U