LARRams
6-5
34
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
07
ARICardinals
3-7
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
17
8
0
28
Cardinals
0
0
0
7
7
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
549
198
Total Plays
76
61
Yards / Play
7.2
3.2
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.42
Passing Yards
417
124
Comp/Att
33/45(73%)
19/34(56%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
3.6
EPA / Pass
+0.50
-0.73
Rushing Yards
132
74
Rush Attempts
30
21
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
13
Passing 1st downs
20
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
53%
15%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
43%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
7
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.90
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-10
-39
Sack EPA
-1.68
-10.87
Penalties
8
2
Penalty Yards
81
7
Penalty EPA
-10.01
-1.19
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-114
Home nfelo
1,363
Away nfelo
1,570
Home Field
+49.3
Base HFA
+48.5
Divisional Adj
-21.9
Home Bye Adj
+13.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.7
Net QB Adjustment
+43.2
Home QB Adjustment
+31.4
Away QB Adjustment
-11.9
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
-11.9
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+31.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
28
Yards / Game
6
32
Passing Yards / Game
26
32
Rushing Yards / Game
26
23
EPA
EPA / Play
15
28
EPA / Pass
12
30
EPA / Rush
28
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
6
Interceptions / Game
25
30
Fumbles / Game
10
14
Turnover EPA / Game
8
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
30
4th Down Efficiency
31
1
RZ Efficiency
6
22
Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
17
Yards / Game
22
14
Passing Yards / Game
22
19
Rushing Yards / Game
10
18
EPA
EPA / Play
17
10
EPA / Pass
19
12
EPA / Rush
5
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
32
Interceptions / Game
16
13
Fumbles / Game
4
12
Turnover EPA / Game
25
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
17
4th Down Efficiency
2
25
RZ Efficiency
30
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Cardinals
3-7
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U