LARRams
7-4
38
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
028
ARICardinals
6-5
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
14
3
15
32
Cardinals
7
0
7
14
28
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
463
232
Total Plays
79
62
Yards / Play
5.9
3.7
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.05
Passing Yards
344
140
Comp/Att
37/47(79%)
21/39(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
3.6
EPA / Pass
+0.39
-0.30
Rushing Yards
119
92
Rush Attempts
31
21
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.16
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
18
Passing 1st downs
19
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
60%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-7.89
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-33
Sack EPA
-1.81
-8.69
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
75
21
Penalty EPA
-7.66
-4.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-57
Home nfelo
1,482
Away nfelo
1,579
Home Field
+6.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+34.2
Home QB Adjustment
+34.6
Away QB Adjustment
+0.4
Market Regression
-21.8
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.4
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+34.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
12
Yards / Game
17
13
Passing Yards / Game
16
11
Rushing Yards / Game
11
21
EPA
EPA / Play
26
9
EPA / Pass
20
10
EPA / Rush
24
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
22
Interceptions / Game
16
20
Fumbles / Game
19
18
Turnover EPA / Game
9
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
10
4th Down Efficiency
28
26
RZ Efficiency
18
4
Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
2
Yards / Game
6
1
Passing Yards / Game
10
3
Rushing Yards / Game
6
4
EPA
EPA / Play
15
1
EPA / Pass
22
1
EPA / Rush
3
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
23
Interceptions / Game
17
13
Fumbles / Game
23
16
Turnover EPA / Game
8
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
4
4th Down Efficiency
5
7
RZ Efficiency
9
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Cardinals
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U