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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ cardinals week 14, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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LAR logo
LARRams
5-7
10
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
30
ARICardinals
7-5
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
0
0
7
10
Cardinals
7
7
1
7
22

Spread

ARI logo
-4.5

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
257
369
Total Plays
50
65
Yards / Play
5.1
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.28
+0.06
Passing Yards
157
262
Comp/Att
16/27(59%)
27/32(84%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.55
+0.25
Rushing Yards
100
107
Rush Attempts
19
32
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
14
25
Passing 1st downs
7
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
5
3rd Down %
27%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-11.31
-4.70
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-24
-7
Sack EPA
-5.34
-1.27
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
90
31
Penalty EPA
-4.10
-7.44

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model67.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+152
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,487
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+65.8
Home QB Adjustment
+12.8
Away QB Adjustment
-53.1
Market Regression
-32.3
Final Difference
123.3
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

K. Clemens headshot

K. Clemens

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-53.1
Value
Ptile
12/30
-3.5
29
12/13
-3.9
24
12/18
1.6
63
12/24
-7.0
10
01/01
-0.5
47
10/28
-8.2
7
11/03
0.1
50
11/10
0.9
56
11/24
-3.9
25
12/01
-3.0
32
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
Value
Ptile
09/22
-10.4
3
09/29
-3.8
26
10/06
-6.8
12
10/13
1.4
60
10/17
-5.7
15
10/27
-2.6
35
11/10
1.2
58
11/17
6.2
87
11/24
3.9
77
12/01
-3.1
31

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Rams logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
21
6
Yards / Game
30
6
Passing Yards / Game
31
18
Rushing Yards / Game
19
1

EPA

EPA / Play
22
2
EPA / Pass
23
4
EPA / Rush
27
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
18
Interceptions / Game
8
5
Fumbles / Game
22
16
Turnover EPA / Game
17
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
11
4th Down Efficiency
27
8
RZ Efficiency
26
14
Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Cardinals logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
16
12
Yards / Game
14
15
Passing Yards / Game
3
28
Rushing Yards / Game
24
9

EPA

EPA / Play
21
9
EPA / Pass
19
17
EPA / Rush
26
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
24
Interceptions / Game
28
19
Fumbles / Game
13
1
Turnover EPA / Game
4
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
16
4th Down Efficiency
12
22
RZ Efficiency
24
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
-24
L
L
U
09/26
-24
L
L
O
10/06
14
W
W
O
10/13
25
W
W
O
10/20
-15
L
L
O
10/28
-5
L
W
U
11/03
-7
L
L
O
11/10
30
W
W
O
11/24
21
W
W
O
12/01
-10
L
L
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
-24
L
L
U
09/29
3
W
W
U
10/06
16
W
W
U
10/13
-12
L
L
O
10/17
-12
L
L
O
10/27
14
W
W
U
11/10
3
W
L
O
11/17
13
W
W
O
11/24
29
W
W
O
12/01
-3
L
W
U