LARRams
5-7
10
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
030
ARICardinals
7-5
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
0
0
7
10
Cardinals
7
7
1
7
22
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
257
369
Total Plays
50
65
Yards / Play
5.1
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.28
+0.06
Passing Yards
157
262
Comp/Att
16/27(59%)
27/32(84%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.55
+0.25
Rushing Yards
100
107
Rush Attempts
19
32
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
25
Passing 1st downs
7
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
5
3rd Down %
27%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-11.31
-4.70
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-24
-7
Sack EPA
-5.34
-1.27
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
90
31
Penalty EPA
-4.10
-7.44
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+154
Home nfelo
1,509
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+65.8
Home QB Adjustment
+12.8
Away QB Adjustment
-53.1
Market Regression
-31.8
Final Difference
123.7
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
K. Clemens
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-53.1
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
6
Yards / Game
30
6
Passing Yards / Game
31
18
Rushing Yards / Game
19
1
EPA
EPA / Play
22
2
EPA / Pass
23
4
EPA / Rush
27
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
18
Interceptions / Game
8
5
Fumbles / Game
22
16
Turnover EPA / Game
17
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
11
4th Down Efficiency
27
8
RZ Efficiency
26
14
Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
12
Yards / Game
14
15
Passing Yards / Game
3
28
Rushing Yards / Game
24
9
EPA
EPA / Play
21
9
EPA / Pass
19
17
EPA / Rush
26
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
24
Interceptions / Game
28
19
Fumbles / Game
13
1
Turnover EPA / Game
4
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
16
4th Down Efficiency
12
22
RZ Efficiency
24
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Cardinals
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U