nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ chargers week 12, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

LAR logo
LARRams
4-6
24
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
72°F
5 mph
27
LACChargers
6-4
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
72°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
1
7
7
18
Chargers
3
3
8
7
21

Spread

LAR logo
+5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
317
410
Total Plays
61
60
Yards / Play
5.2
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.09
Passing Yards
210
282
Comp/Att
19/36(53%)
29/35(83%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
8.1
EPA / Pass
-0.17
-0.14
Rushing Yards
107
128
Rush Attempts
24
22
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
16
19
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
43%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-11.14
-12.75
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-9
Sack EPA
-6.80
-4.30
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
90
85
Penalty EPA
+4.11
-7.48

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+99
Home nfelo
1,534
Away nfelo
1,505
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.2
Home QB Adjustment
-4.2
Away QB Adjustment
+10.0
Market Regression
-4.8
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

S. Hill headshot

S. Hill

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+10.0
Value
Ptile
10/03
5.3
84
10/10
6.0
87
10/17
-0.4
47
11/14
1.4
57
11/21
1.3
57
11/25
-2.1
35
12/26
2.3
64
01/02
3.2
70
09/07
-7.7
9
11/16
-0.8
45
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.2
Value
Ptile
09/08
0.8
55
09/14
8.7
93
09/21
5.0
82
09/28
8.5
93
10/05
2.5
68
10/12
5.8
84
10/19
-2.1
35
10/23
3.5
74
11/02
-11.3
2
11/16
-2.3
33

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Chargers Defense
Rams logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
21
12
Yards / Game
27
10
Passing Yards / Game
25
1
Rushing Yards / Game
20
25

EPA

EPA / Play
28
23
EPA / Pass
28
21
EPA / Rush
29
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
16
Interceptions / Game
19
28
Fumbles / Game
22
6
Turnover EPA / Game
2
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
24
4th Down Efficiency
22
3
RZ Efficiency
22
14
Chargers Offense vs Rams Defense
Chargers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
17
16
Yards / Game
19
18
Passing Yards / Game
8
9
Rushing Yards / Game
30
14

EPA

EPA / Play
12
6
EPA / Pass
7
12
EPA / Rush
27
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
8
Interceptions / Game
26
19
Fumbles / Game
2
10
Turnover EPA / Game
23
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
15
4th Down Efficiency
19
1
RZ Efficiency
15
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
-28
L
L
U
09/14
2
W
W
U
09/21
-3
L
L
O
10/05
-6
L
L
O
10/13
-14
L
L
O
10/19
2
W
W
O
10/26
-27
L
L
U
11/02
3
W
W
U
11/09
-17
L
L
O
11/16
15
W
W
U
LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
-1
L
W
U
09/14
9
W
W
O
09/21
12
W
W
U
09/28
19
W
W
O
10/05
31
W
W
U
10/12
3
W
L
O
10/19
-3
L
L
U
10/23
-14
L
L
O
11/02
-37
L
L
U
11/16
7
W
L
U