LARRams
4-6
24
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
72°F
5 mph
27
LACChargers
6-4
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
72°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
1
7
7
18
Chargers
3
3
8
7
21
Spread
+5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
317
410
Total Plays
61
60
Yards / Play
5.2
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.09
Passing Yards
210
282
Comp/Att
19/36(53%)
29/35(83%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
8.1
EPA / Pass
-0.17
-0.14
Rushing Yards
107
128
Rush Attempts
24
22
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
19
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
43%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-11.14
-12.75
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-9
Sack EPA
-6.80
-4.30
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
90
85
Penalty EPA
+4.11
-7.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+96
Home nfelo
1,534
Away nfelo
1,508
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.2
Home QB Adjustment
-4.2
Away QB Adjustment
+10.0
Market Regression
-3.4
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
S. Hill
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+10.0
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
12
Yards / Game
27
10
Passing Yards / Game
25
1
Rushing Yards / Game
20
25
EPA
EPA / Play
28
23
EPA / Pass
28
21
EPA / Rush
29
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
16
Interceptions / Game
19
28
Fumbles / Game
22
6
Turnover EPA / Game
2
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
24
4th Down Efficiency
22
3
RZ Efficiency
22
14
Chargers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
16
Yards / Game
19
18
Passing Yards / Game
8
9
Rushing Yards / Game
30
14
EPA
EPA / Play
12
6
EPA / Pass
7
12
EPA / Rush
27
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
8
Interceptions / Game
26
19
Fumbles / Game
2
10
Turnover EPA / Game
23
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
15
4th Down Efficiency
19
1
RZ Efficiency
15
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chargers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U