LARRams
2-4
7
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
8 mph
34
KCChiefs
3-3
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
0
0
0
7
Chiefs
0
10
10
14
34
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
200
355
Total Plays
51
64
Yards / Play
3.9
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.28
+0.21
Passing Yards
116
215
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
25/29(86%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.37
+0.34
Rushing Yards
84
140
Rush Attempts
19
33
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
23
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
27%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.97
-6.26
Sacks
7
2
Sack Yards
-44
-8
Sack EPA
-12.62
-1.14
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
68
51
Penalty EPA
-11.48
-7.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+167
Home nfelo
1,527
Away nfelo
1,505
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+61.3
Home QB Adjustment
+3.2
Away QB Adjustment
-58.1
Market Regression
+29.6
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
A. Davis
Proj. Value
-5.4
Team Elo Adj
-58.1
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
2
Yards / Game
27
8
Passing Yards / Game
25
20
Rushing Yards / Game
20
28
EPA
EPA / Play
28
12
EPA / Pass
28
8
EPA / Rush
29
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
7
Interceptions / Game
19
30
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
2
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
5
4th Down Efficiency
22
8
RZ Efficiency
22
1
Chiefs Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
16
Yards / Game
25
18
Passing Yards / Game
24
9
Rushing Yards / Game
11
14
EPA
EPA / Play
9
6
EPA / Pass
12
12
EPA / Rush
4
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
8
Interceptions / Game
1
19
Fumbles / Game
22
10
Turnover EPA / Game
32
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
15
4th Down Efficiency
21
1
RZ Efficiency
9
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U