LARRams
3-7
10
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
44°F
6 mph
26
KCChiefs
8-2
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
44°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
3
0
7
10
Chiefs
7
6
7
6
26
Spread
-11
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
198
437
Total Plays
55
72
Yards / Play
3.6
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.15
Passing Yards
82
--
Comp/Att
14/24(58%)
27/42(64%)
Yards / Pass
3.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.43
+0.18
Rushing Yards
116
117
Rush Attempts
28
30
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
29
Passing 1st downs
8
20
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
38%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
100%
17%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.35
-4.91
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-24
--
Sack EPA
-4.83
--
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
25
--
Penalty EPA
-4.24
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model86.5%
Spread Pick
Chiefs-11.0
Expected Value
+8.2%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+372
Home nfelo
1,640
Away nfelo
1,493
Home Field
+47.1
Base HFA
+40.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
-7.2
Net QB Adjustment
+178.7
Home QB Adjustment
+21.6
Away QB Adjustment
-157.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
322.3
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
B. Perkins
Proj. Value
-6.4
Team Elo Adj
-157.0
No recent game data available
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+21.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
18
Yards / Game
32
14
Passing Yards / Game
26
28
Rushing Yards / Game
26
8
EPA
EPA / Play
27
27
EPA / Pass
27
15
EPA / Rush
19
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
30
Interceptions / Game
22
21
Fumbles / Game
11
2
Turnover EPA / Game
4
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
22
4th Down Efficiency
1
24
RZ Efficiency
14
28
Chiefs Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
20
Yards / Game
1
18
Passing Yards / Game
12
11
Rushing Yards / Game
20
13
EPA
EPA / Play
1
19
EPA / Pass
1
26
EPA / Rush
6
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
3
Interceptions / Game
7
7
Fumbles / Game
6
30
Turnover EPA / Game
27
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
21
4th Down Efficiency
2
31
RZ Efficiency
2
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U