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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ chiefs week 12, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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LAR logo
LARRams
3-7
10
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
44°F
6 mph
26
KCChiefs
8-2
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
44°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
3
0
7
10
Chiefs
7
6
7
6
26

Spread

KC logo
-11

Total

UNDER
42

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
198
437
Total Plays
55
72
Yards / Play
3.6
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.15
Passing Yards
82
--
Comp/Att
14/24(58%)
27/42(64%)
Yards / Pass
3.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.43
+0.18
Rushing Yards
116
117
Rush Attempts
28
30
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
13
29
Passing 1st downs
8
20
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
38%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
100%
17%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.35
-4.91
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-24
--
Sack EPA
-4.83
--
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
25
--
Penalty EPA
-4.24
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-13.5

Win Probability

Market81.7%
Model86.3%
Spread Pick
KC logo
Chiefs-11.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.2%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+368
Home nfelo
1,637
Away nfelo
1,495
Home Field
+47.0
Base HFA
+40.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.0
Time Adj
-7.2
Net QB Adjustment
+178.7
Home QB Adjustment
+21.6
Away QB Adjustment
-157.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
320.0
Model Spread
-13.5

Quarterbacks

B. Perkins headshot

B. Perkins

Proj. Value
-6.4
Team Elo Adj
-157.0
No recent game data available
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+21.6
Value
Ptile
09/11
13.5
99
09/15
2.8
74
09/25
-0.4
49
10/02
2.8
74
10/10
6.0
89
10/16
2.1
69
10/23
9.6
96
11/06
8.0
93
11/13
10.2
97
11/20
6.8
91

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Rams logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
27
18
Yards / Game
32
14
Passing Yards / Game
26
28
Rushing Yards / Game
26
8

EPA

EPA / Play
27
27
EPA / Pass
27
15
EPA / Rush
19
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
30
Interceptions / Game
22
21
Fumbles / Game
11
2
Turnover EPA / Game
4
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
22
4th Down Efficiency
1
24
RZ Efficiency
14
28
Chiefs Offense vs Rams Defense
Chiefs logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
1
20
Yards / Game
1
18
Passing Yards / Game
12
11
Rushing Yards / Game
20
13

EPA

EPA / Play
1
19
EPA / Pass
1
26
EPA / Rush
6
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
3
Interceptions / Game
7
7
Fumbles / Game
6
30
Turnover EPA / Game
27
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
21
4th Down Efficiency
2
31
RZ Efficiency
2
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
-21
L
L
U
09/18
4
W
L
O
09/25
8
W
W
U
10/03
-15
L
L
U
10/09
-12
L
L
U
10/16
14
W
W
U
10/30
-17
L
L
O
11/06
-3
L
P
U
11/13
-10
L
L
O
11/20
-7
L
L
O
KC logo

Chiefs

8-2
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
23
W
W
O
09/15
3
W
L
U
09/25
-3
L
L
U
10/02
10
W
W
O
10/10
1
W
L
O
10/16
-4
L
L
U
10/23
21
W
W
O
11/06
3
W
L
U
11/13
10
W
P
U
11/20
3
W
L
O