LARRams
3-6
38
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
08
INDColts
6-2
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
1
15
10
0
26
Colts
0
0
8
0
8
Spread
+8
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
372
408
Total Plays
55
70
Yards / Play
6.8
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.46
Passing Yards
232
390
Comp/Att
9/16(56%)
31/53(58%)
Yards / Pass
14.5
7.4
EPA / Pass
+1.03
-0.28
Rushing Yards
140
18
Rush Attempts
37
14
Yards / Rush
3.8
1.3
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.69
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
21
Passing 1st downs
7
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
--
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
47%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
33%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.77
-25.82
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-15
-33
Sack EPA
-3.20
-12.32
Penalties
8
2
Penalty Yards
46
--
Penalty EPA
-5.62
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model76.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+238
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,423
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+80.9
Home QB Adjustment
+13.6
Away QB Adjustment
-67.4
Market Regression
-54.1
Final Difference
205.8
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
K. Clemens
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-67.4
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+13.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
14
Yards / Game
30
22
Passing Yards / Game
31
21
Rushing Yards / Game
19
30
EPA
EPA / Play
22
20
EPA / Pass
23
21
EPA / Rush
27
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
27
Interceptions / Game
8
21
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
17
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
23
4th Down Efficiency
27
18
RZ Efficiency
26
30
Colts Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
12
Yards / Game
11
15
Passing Yards / Game
11
28
Rushing Yards / Game
21
9
EPA
EPA / Play
10
9
EPA / Pass
16
17
EPA / Rush
6
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
24
Interceptions / Game
17
19
Fumbles / Game
2
1
Turnover EPA / Game
22
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
16
4th Down Efficiency
22
22
RZ Efficiency
10
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Colts
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U