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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ colts week 10, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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LAR logo
LARRams
3-6
38
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
8
INDColts
6-2
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
1
15
10
0
26
Colts
0
0
8
0
8

Spread

LAR logo
+8

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
372
408
Total Plays
55
70
Yards / Play
6.8
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.46
Passing Yards
232
390
Comp/Att
9/16(56%)
31/53(58%)
Yards / Pass
14.5
7.4
EPA / Pass
+1.03
-0.28
Rushing Yards
140
18
Rush Attempts
37
14
Yards / Rush
3.8
1.3
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.69
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
12
21
Passing 1st downs
7
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
--
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
47%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
33%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.77
-25.82
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-15
-33
Sack EPA
-3.20
-12.32
Penalties
8
2
Penalty Yards
46
--
Penalty EPA
-5.62
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market75.7%
Model77.6%
Spread Pick
IND logo
Colts-8.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.4%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+245
Home nfelo
1,511
Away nfelo
1,421
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+80.9
Home QB Adjustment
+13.6
Away QB Adjustment
-67.4
Market Regression
-44.2
Final Difference
215.7
Model Spread
-9.0

Quarterbacks

K. Clemens headshot

K. Clemens

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-67.4
Value
Ptile
12/02
-4.0
25
12/09
-3.6
28
12/16
-6.2
10
12/30
-3.5
29
12/13
-3.9
24
12/18
1.6
63
12/24
-7.0
10
01/01
-0.5
47
10/28
-8.2
7
11/03
0.1
50
A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+13.6
Value
Ptile
12/30
0.4
52
01/06
-2.1
35
09/08
3.8
76
09/15
1.9
63
09/22
1.6
61
09/29
1.5
61
10/06
1.8
62
10/14
-3.5
28
10/20
5.8
86
11/03
-0.7
46

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Colts Defense
Rams logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
21
14
Yards / Game
30
22
Passing Yards / Game
31
21
Rushing Yards / Game
19
30

EPA

EPA / Play
22
20
EPA / Pass
23
21
EPA / Rush
27
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
27
Interceptions / Game
8
21
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
17
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
23
4th Down Efficiency
27
18
RZ Efficiency
26
30
Colts Offense vs Rams Defense
Colts logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
10
12
Yards / Game
11
15
Passing Yards / Game
11
28
Rushing Yards / Game
21
9

EPA

EPA / Play
10
9
EPA / Pass
16
17
EPA / Rush
6
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
24
Interceptions / Game
17
19
Fumbles / Game
2
1
Turnover EPA / Game
22
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
16
4th Down Efficiency
22
22
RZ Efficiency
10
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
-7
L
W
U
09/08
3
W
L
O
09/15
-7
L
L
O
09/22
-24
L
L
U
09/26
-24
L
L
O
10/06
14
W
W
O
10/13
25
W
W
O
10/20
-15
L
L
O
10/28
-5
L
W
U
11/03
-7
L
L
O
IND logo

Colts

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
12
W
W
U
01/06
-15
L
L
U
09/08
4
W
L
U
09/15
-4
L
L
O
09/22
20
W
W
U
09/29
34
W
W
U
10/06
6
W
W
O
10/14
-10
L
L
U
10/20
6
W
W
O
11/03
3
W
W
O