LARRams
0-1
7
TBD
FedExField
72°F
7 mph
9
WASCommanders
0-1
TBD
FedExField
72°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
7
0
0
7
Commanders
3
3
3
0
9
Spread
+9.5
Total
UNDER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
245
362
Total Plays
50
70
Yards / Play
4.9
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.07
Passing Yards
119
237
Comp/Att
15/28(54%)
23/36(64%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.12
Rushing Yards
126
125
Rush Attempts
21
33
Yards / Rush
6.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
21
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
50%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.15
-3.51
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-5
Sack EPA
-1.66
-1.38
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
--
35
Penalty EPA
--
-4.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model81.4%
Spread Pick
Commanders-9.5
Expected Value
+13.4%
Cover Probability
59.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+291
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,315
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+15.4
Home QB Adjustment
+2.9
Away QB Adjustment
-12.5
Market Regression
-0.3
Final Difference
256.3
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
M. Bulger
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-12.5
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
17
Yards / Game
29
11
Passing Yards / Game
24
27
Rushing Yards / Game
19
15
EPA
EPA / Play
32
20
EPA / Pass
31
25
EPA / Rush
30
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
5
Interceptions / Game
29
26
Fumbles / Game
19
16
Turnover EPA / Game
2
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
21
4th Down Efficiency
29
1
RZ Efficiency
31
1
Commanders Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
31
Yards / Game
22
29
Passing Yards / Game
14
6
Rushing Yards / Game
28
27
EPA
EPA / Play
21
31
EPA / Pass
18
30
EPA / Rush
23
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
7
Interceptions / Game
16
31
Fumbles / Game
4
7
Turnover EPA / Game
24
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
29
4th Down Efficiency
30
15
RZ Efficiency
8
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
0-10
SU
3-7
ATS
0-1-9
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
2-6-2
ATS
1-0-9
O/U