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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ commanders week 2, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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LAR logo
LARRams
0-1
7
TBD
FedExField
72°F
7 mph
9
WASCommanders
0-1
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
72°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
7
0
0
7
Commanders
3
3
3
0
9

Spread

LAR logo
+9.5

Total

UNDER
37

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
245
362
Total Plays
50
70
Yards / Play
4.9
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.07
Passing Yards
119
237
Comp/Att
15/28(54%)
23/36(64%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.12
Rushing Yards
126
125
Rush Attempts
21
33
Yards / Rush
6.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
14
21
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
50%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.15
-3.51
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-5
Sack EPA
-1.66
-1.38
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
--
35
Penalty EPA
--
-4.49

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model81.4%
Spread Pick
WAS logo
Commanders-9.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+13.4%
Cover Probability
59.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+290
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,315
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+15.4
Home QB Adjustment
+2.9
Away QB Adjustment
-12.5
Market Regression
-0.3
Final Difference
256.1
Model Spread
-11.0

Quarterbacks

M. Bulger headshot

M. Bulger

Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-12.5
Value
Ptile
11/02
-3.2
26
11/09
-7.6
7
11/16
-1.8
38
11/23
-5.4
13
11/30
-9.2
3
12/07
-1.9
37
12/14
0.1
53
12/21
-3.9
22
12/28
-1.1
44
09/13
-5.4
17
J. Campbell headshot

J. Campbell

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
Value
Ptile
10/26
3.4
74
11/03
-10.1
2
11/16
-1.3
42
11/23
1.2
60
11/30
-1.5
40
12/07
-1.9
37
12/14
1.4
62
12/21
-1.7
39
12/28
4.2
78
09/13
1.5
59

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Commanders Defense
Rams logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
32
17
Yards / Game
29
11
Passing Yards / Game
24
27
Rushing Yards / Game
19
15

EPA

EPA / Play
32
20
EPA / Pass
31
25
EPA / Rush
30
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
5
Interceptions / Game
29
26
Fumbles / Game
19
16
Turnover EPA / Game
2
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
21
4th Down Efficiency
29
1
RZ Efficiency
31
1
Commanders Offense vs Rams Defense
Commanders logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
26
31
Yards / Game
22
29
Passing Yards / Game
14
6
Rushing Yards / Game
28
27

EPA

EPA / Play
21
31
EPA / Pass
18
30
EPA / Rush
23
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
7
Interceptions / Game
16
31
Fumbles / Game
4
7
Turnover EPA / Game
24
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
29
4th Down Efficiency
30
15
RZ Efficiency
8
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

0-10
SU
3-7
ATS
0-1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
-21
L
L
P
11/09
-44
L
L
P
11/16
-19
L
L
P
11/23
-24
L
L
P
11/30
-4
L
W
P
12/07
-24
L
L
P
12/14
-3
L
L
P
12/21
-1
L
W
P
12/28
-4
L
W
P
09/13
-28
L
L
U
WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
2-6-2
ATS
1-0-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
8
W
W
P
11/03
-17
L
L
P
11/16
-4
L
L
P
11/23
3
W
P
P
11/30
-16
L
L
P
12/07
-14
L
L
P
12/14
-7
L
L
P
12/21
7
W
W
P
12/28
-3
L
L
P
09/13
-6
L
P
O