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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ cowboys week 7, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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LAR logo
LARRams
0-5
7
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
34
DALCowboys
2-3
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
7
0
0
7
Cowboys
7
10
3
14
34

Spread

DAL logo
-14

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
265
445
Total Plays
55
60
Yards / Play
4.8
7.4
EPA / Play
-0.21
+0.27
Passing Yards
195
151
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
14/24(58%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.36
+0.22
Rushing Yards
70
294
Rush Attempts
21
34
Yards / Rush
3.3
8.6
EPA / Rush
-0.25
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
13
24
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
8
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.29
-5.30
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-1
-15
Sack EPA
-3.14
-2.50
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
16
30
Penalty EPA
-2.29
-5.15

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0

Win Probability

Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+276
Home nfelo
1,549
Away nfelo
1,387
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+51.6
Home QB Adjustment
+11.8
Away QB Adjustment
-39.8
Market Regression
+87.5
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0

Quarterbacks

A. Feeley headshot

A. Feeley

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-39.8
Value
Ptile
09/19
-4.3
22
09/26
-8.9
5
11/21
-3.1
30
11/28
-2.2
35
12/05
-3.6
26
12/12
-6.2
13
12/20
-0.7
43
12/26
0.1
49
11/25
3.3
73
12/02
-7.2
7
A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.8
Value
Ptile
09/19
4.0
76
09/26
7.0
90
10/10
0.6
52
10/17
6.3
88
10/25
-1.4
41
09/11
2.5
69
09/18
6.1
86
09/26
-1.8
37
10/02
4.5
79
10/16
2.4
69

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Rams logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
32
15
Yards / Game
31
14
Passing Yards / Game
21
17
Rushing Yards / Game
23
6

EPA

EPA / Play
32
17
EPA / Pass
31
18
EPA / Rush
32
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
14
Interceptions / Game
3
18
Fumbles / Game
27
12
Turnover EPA / Game
13
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
22
4th Down Efficiency
24
8
RZ Efficiency
31
22
Cowboys Offense vs Rams Defense
Cowboys logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
15
25
Yards / Game
10
21
Passing Yards / Game
7
14
Rushing Yards / Game
17
31

EPA

EPA / Play
11
16
EPA / Pass
6
20
EPA / Rush
22
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
1
Interceptions / Game
7
23
Fumbles / Game
17
29
Turnover EPA / Game
24
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
18
4th Down Efficiency
9
29
RZ Efficiency
19
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/05
13
W
W
U
12/12
-18
L
L
U
12/19
-14
L
L
U
12/26
8
W
W
O
01/02
-10
L
L
U
09/11
-18
L
L
P
09/19
-12
L
L
O
09/25
-30
L
L
O
10/02
-7
L
L
U
10/16
-21
L
L
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/05
3
W
W
O
12/12
-3
L
W
O
12/19
3
W
L
O
12/25
-1
L
L
O
01/02
1
W
L
U
09/11
-3
L
W
O
09/18
3
W
P
O
09/26
2
W
L
U
10/02
-4
L
L
O
10/16
-4
L
W
U