LARRams
3-2
14
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
84°F
20 mph
17
MIADolphins
2-3
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
84°F
20 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
6
0
0
8
14
Dolphins
0
10
7
0
17
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
464
192
Total Plays
70
49
Yards / Play
6.6
3.9
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.11
Passing Yards
302
156
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.03
Rushing Yards
162
36
Rush Attempts
27
17
Yards / Rush
6.0
2.1
EPA / Rush
+0.29
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
12
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
23%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.47
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-15
-29
Sack EPA
-4.53
-5.07
Penalties
12
5
Penalty Yards
94
--
Penalty EPA
-9.55
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model73.9%
Spread Pick
Dolphins-5.5
Expected Value
+19.8%
Cover Probability
62.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+222
Home nfelo
1,487
Away nfelo
1,371
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+9.8
Home QB Adjustment
+0.1
Away QB Adjustment
-9.7
Market Regression
+22.2
Final Difference
180.8
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-9.7
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
7
Yards / Game
22
20
Passing Yards / Game
16
29
Rushing Yards / Game
20
12
EPA
EPA / Play
25
14
EPA / Pass
18
17
EPA / Rush
22
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
13
Interceptions / Game
12
27
Fumbles / Game
9
22
Turnover EPA / Game
16
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
9
4th Down Efficiency
15
28
RZ Efficiency
19
2
Dolphins Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
14
Yards / Game
27
13
Passing Yards / Game
19
18
Rushing Yards / Game
17
15
EPA
EPA / Play
22
13
EPA / Pass
25
9
EPA / Rush
19
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
20
Interceptions / Game
10
11
Fumbles / Game
19
32
Turnover EPA / Game
11
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
13
4th Down Efficiency
27
6
RZ Efficiency
11
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U