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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ dolphins week 6, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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LAR logo
LARRams
3-2
14
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
84°F
20 mph
17
MIADolphins
2-3
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
84°F
20 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
6
0
0
8
14
Dolphins
0
10
7
0
17

Spread

LAR logo
+5.5

Total

UNDER
38

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
464
192
Total Plays
70
49
Yards / Play
6.6
3.9
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.11
Passing Yards
302
156
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.03
Rushing Yards
162
36
Rush Attempts
27
17
Yards / Rush
6.0
2.1
EPA / Rush
+0.29
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
22
12
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
23%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.47
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-15
-29
Sack EPA
-4.53
-5.07
Penalties
12
5
Penalty Yards
94
--
Penalty EPA
-9.55
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model73.4%
Spread Pick
MIA logo
Dolphins-5.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.8%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+217
Home nfelo
1,485
Away nfelo
1,373
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+9.8
Home QB Adjustment
+0.1
Away QB Adjustment
-9.7
Market Regression
+18.1
Final Difference
176.3
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-9.7
Value
Ptile
11/06
-4.2
24
11/13
-2.2
35
11/20
-8.9
3
11/27
-1.3
43
12/12
-8.1
5
09/09
-2.8
32
09/16
6.2
88
09/23
-11.5
1
09/30
-3.9
25
10/04
-4.4
23
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.1
Value
Ptile
09/09
-7.8
6
09/16
2.8
68
09/23
-4.6
21
09/30
0.9
56
10/07
-1.9
37

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Rams logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
25
7
Yards / Game
22
20
Passing Yards / Game
16
29
Rushing Yards / Game
20
12

EPA

EPA / Play
25
14
EPA / Pass
18
17
EPA / Rush
22
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
13
Interceptions / Game
12
27
Fumbles / Game
9
22
Turnover EPA / Game
16
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
9
4th Down Efficiency
15
28
RZ Efficiency
19
2
Dolphins Offense vs Rams Defense
Dolphins logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
27
14
Yards / Game
27
13
Passing Yards / Game
19
18
Rushing Yards / Game
17
15

EPA

EPA / Play
22
13
EPA / Pass
25
9
EPA / Rush
19
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
20
Interceptions / Game
10
11
Fumbles / Game
19
32
Turnover EPA / Game
11
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
13
4th Down Efficiency
27
6
RZ Efficiency
11
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
-26
L
L
U
12/12
-17
L
L
O
12/18
-7
L
P
U
12/24
-27
L
L
U
01/01
-7
L
W
O
09/09
-4
L
W
O
09/16
3
W
W
O
09/23
-17
L
L
U
09/30
6
W
W
U
10/04
14
W
W
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
20
W
W
O
12/11
-16
L
L
U
12/18
7
W
W
O
12/24
-3
L
W
O
01/01
2
W
W
U
09/09
-20
L
L
U
09/16
22
W
W
O
09/23
-3
L
L
O
09/30
-3
L
W
O
10/07
4
W
W
U