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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ eagles week 5, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAR logo
LARRams
1-2
28
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
59°F
16 mph
34
PHIEagles
3-1
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
59°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
7
7
14
28
Eagles
7
7
8
0
22

Spread

PHI logo
-4

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
466
352
Total Plays
76
70
Yards / Play
6.1
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.07
Passing Yards
341
--
Comp/Att
29/49(59%)
24/37(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.01
Rushing Yards
125
145
Rush Attempts
23
33
Yards / Rush
5.4
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
29
22
Passing 1st downs
21
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
75%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
3
2
Turnover EPA
-20.07
-11.86
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-34
--
Sack EPA
-14.79
--
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
82
39
Penalty EPA
-10.49
-3.37

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model69.1%
Spread Pick
PHI logo
Eagles-4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.0%
Cover Probability
52.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+177
Home nfelo
1,538
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+46.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+86.1
Home QB Adjustment
+0.6
Away QB Adjustment
-85.5
Market Regression
-31.5
Final Difference
139.5
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

A. Davis headshot

A. Davis

Proj. Value
-5.4
Team Elo Adj
-85.5
Value
Ptile
09/14
-0.4
47
09/21
4.9
81
N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Value
Ptile
12/01
1.3
60
12/08
0.5
53
12/15
6.1
87
12/22
5.9
86
12/29
-3.3
29
01/04
2.4
67
09/07
-1.7
38
09/15
2.7
70
09/21
9.3
95
09/28
-7.8
8

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Eagles Defense
Rams logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
21
22
Yards / Game
27
28
Passing Yards / Game
25
7
Rushing Yards / Game
20
15

EPA

EPA / Play
28
7
EPA / Pass
28
17
EPA / Rush
29
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
19
Interceptions / Game
19
22
Fumbles / Game
22
1
Turnover EPA / Game
2
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
12
4th Down Efficiency
22
4
RZ Efficiency
22
20
Eagles Offense vs Rams Defense
Eagles logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
3
16
Yards / Game
4
18
Passing Yards / Game
19
9
Rushing Yards / Game
8
14

EPA

EPA / Play
14
6
EPA / Pass
15
12
EPA / Rush
21
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
8
Interceptions / Game
32
19
Fumbles / Game
31
10
Turnover EPA / Game
1
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
15
4th Down Efficiency
2
1
RZ Efficiency
24
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/10
30
W
W
O
11/24
21
W
W
O
12/01
-10
L
L
U
12/08
-20
L
L
U
12/15
11
W
W
U
12/22
10
W
W
U
12/29
-18
L
L
U
09/07
-28
L
L
U
09/14
2
W
W
U
09/21
-3
L
L
O
PHI logo

Eagles

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
3
W
L
U
12/08
14
W
W
P
12/15
-18
L
L
O
12/22
43
W
W
O
12/29
2
W
L
U
01/04
-2
L
L
U
09/07
17
W
W
O
09/15
3
W
W
O
09/21
3
W
L
O
09/28
-5
L
L
U