LARRams
11-7
22
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
34°F
8 mph
28
PHIEagles
15-3
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
34°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
3
3
7
20
Eagles
13
0
3
12
28
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
402
350
Total Plays
70
61
Yards / Play
5.7
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.09
Passing Yards
291
65
Comp/Att
26/44(59%)
15/20(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
3.3
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.24
Rushing Yards
111
285
Rush Attempts
21
34
Yards / Rush
5.3
8.4
EPA / Rush
-0.40
+0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
16
Passing 1st downs
15
6
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
38%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
40%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-11.70
--
Sacks
5
7
Sack Yards
-33
-63
Sack EPA
-10.55
-11.88
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-2.94
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+197
Home nfelo
1,678
Away nfelo
1,558
Home Field
+59.0
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-0.4
Home QB Adjustment
+0.3
Away QB Adjustment
+0.7
Market Regression
+18.1
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
1
Yards / Game
14
1
Passing Yards / Game
31
14
Rushing Yards / Game
23
4
EPA
EPA / Play
14
1
EPA / Pass
12
1
EPA / Rush
27
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
12
Interceptions / Game
7
6
Fumbles / Game
11
1
Turnover EPA / Game
28
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
8
4th Down Efficiency
7
21
RZ Efficiency
25
6
Eagles Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
15
Yards / Game
8
25
Passing Yards / Game
25
15
Rushing Yards / Game
2
28
EPA
EPA / Play
7
20
EPA / Pass
7
13
EPA / Rush
4
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
23
Interceptions / Game
3
15
Fumbles / Game
8
25
Turnover EPA / Game
31
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
18
4th Down Efficiency
3
6
RZ Efficiency
10
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Eagles
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U