LARRams
1-0
24
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
031
ATLFalcons
0-1
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
3
7
14
24
Falcons
14
4
0
7
25
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
421
393
Total Plays
73
61
Yards / Play
5.8
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.16
Passing Yards
--
357
Comp/Att
32/55(58%)
33/43(77%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.31
Rushing Yards
69
36
Rush Attempts
18
16
Yards / Rush
3.8
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.00
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
18
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
41%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.62
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-17
Sack EPA
--
-4.28
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
53
53
Penalty EPA
-6.53
-7.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model68.6%
Spread Pick
Falcons-4.0
Expected Value
+4.0%
Cover Probability
52.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+169
Home nfelo
1,527
Away nfelo
1,434
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+1.2
Home QB Adjustment
+13.2
Away QB Adjustment
+12.0
Market Regression
-5.9
Final Difference
135.5
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+13.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
27
Yards / Game
30
26
Passing Yards / Game
31
11
Rushing Yards / Game
19
31
EPA
EPA / Play
22
32
EPA / Pass
23
30
EPA / Rush
27
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
11
Interceptions / Game
8
29
Fumbles / Game
22
5
Turnover EPA / Game
17
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
32
4th Down Efficiency
27
27
RZ Efficiency
26
20
Falcons Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
12
Yards / Game
16
15
Passing Yards / Game
9
28
Rushing Yards / Game
32
9
EPA
EPA / Play
17
9
EPA / Pass
18
17
EPA / Rush
23
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
24
Interceptions / Game
19
19
Fumbles / Game
17
1
Turnover EPA / Game
19
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
16
4th Down Efficiency
21
22
RZ Efficiency
19
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
5-4-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U