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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ giants week 2, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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LAR logo
LARRams
0-1
16
TBD
MetLife Stadium
60°F
6 mph
28
NYGGiants
0-1
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
60°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
6
0
10
0
16
Giants
7
8
7
0
22

Spread

NYG logo
-7

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
367
323
Total Plays
67
71
Yards / Play
5.5
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.06
Passing Yards
308
204
Comp/Att
22/46(48%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.18
+0.10
Rushing Yards
59
119
Rush Attempts
19
38
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.67
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
1
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
29%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.96
+1.91
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-23
-19
Sack EPA
-2.89
-5.91
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
62
55
Penalty EPA
-6.45
-4.33

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+170
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,429
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+7.5
Home QB Adjustment
-2.0
Away QB Adjustment
-9.4
Market Regression
+39.7
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-9.4
Value
Ptile
10/31
4.3
77
11/14
2.9
69
11/21
3.7
74
11/28
4.3
78
12/05
-4.1
24
12/12
-4.1
23
12/19
-9.3
4
12/26
5.5
84
01/02
-8.3
6
09/11
-6.4
12
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.0
Value
Ptile
11/07
8.1
93
11/14
6.2
88
11/21
-1.4
41
11/28
2.1
62
12/05
-3.8
25
12/13
-3.6
25
12/19
4.5
80
12/26
-1.9
37
01/02
0.2
50
09/11
-3.2
30

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Giants Defense
Rams logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
32
20
Yards / Game
31
22
Passing Yards / Game
21
27
Rushing Yards / Game
23
18

EPA

EPA / Play
32
24
EPA / Pass
31
26
EPA / Rush
32
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
23
Interceptions / Game
3
14
Fumbles / Game
27
11
Turnover EPA / Game
13
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
16
4th Down Efficiency
24
20
RZ Efficiency
31
21
Giants Offense vs Rams Defense
Giants logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
7
25
Yards / Game
8
21
Passing Yards / Game
3
14
Rushing Yards / Game
29
31

EPA

EPA / Play
5
16
EPA / Pass
5
20
EPA / Rush
26
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
1
Interceptions / Game
12
23
Fumbles / Game
16
29
Turnover EPA / Game
29
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
18
4th Down Efficiency
25
29
RZ Efficiency
9
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/31
10
W
W
U
11/14
-3
L
W
O
11/21
-17
L
L
O
11/28
3
W
W
O
12/05
13
W
W
U
12/12
-18
L
L
U
12/19
-14
L
L
U
12/26
8
W
W
O
01/02
-10
L
L
U
09/11
-18
L
L
P
NYG logo

Giants

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
34
W
W
O
11/14
-13
L
L
O
11/21
-10
L
L
U
11/28
4
W
L
O
12/05
24
W
W
U
12/13
18
W
W
U
12/19
-7
L
L
O
12/26
-28
L
L
O
01/02
3
W
L
U
09/11
-14
L
L
O