LARRams
0-1
16
TBD
MetLife Stadium
60°F
6 mph
28
NYGGiants
0-1
TBD
MetLife Stadium
60°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
6
0
10
0
16
Giants
7
8
7
0
22
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
367
323
Total Plays
67
71
Yards / Play
5.5
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.06
Passing Yards
308
204
Comp/Att
22/46(48%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.18
+0.10
Rushing Yards
59
119
Rush Attempts
19
38
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.67
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
1
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
29%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.96
+1.91
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-23
-19
Sack EPA
-2.89
-5.91
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
62
55
Penalty EPA
-6.45
-4.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+170
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,429
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+7.5
Home QB Adjustment
-2.0
Away QB Adjustment
-9.4
Market Regression
+39.7
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-9.4
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
20
Yards / Game
31
22
Passing Yards / Game
21
27
Rushing Yards / Game
23
18
EPA
EPA / Play
32
24
EPA / Pass
31
26
EPA / Rush
32
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
23
Interceptions / Game
3
14
Fumbles / Game
27
11
Turnover EPA / Game
13
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
16
4th Down Efficiency
24
20
RZ Efficiency
31
21
Giants Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
25
Yards / Game
8
21
Passing Yards / Game
3
14
Rushing Yards / Game
29
31
EPA
EPA / Play
5
16
EPA / Pass
5
20
EPA / Rush
26
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
1
Interceptions / Game
12
23
Fumbles / Game
16
29
Turnover EPA / Game
29
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
18
4th Down Efficiency
25
29
RZ Efficiency
9
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Giants
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U