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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ jets week 16, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAR logo
LARRams
8-6
19
TBD
MetLife Stadium
23°F
8 mph
9
NYJJets
4-10
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
23°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
6
0
13
19
Jets
6
3
0
0
9

Spread

LAR logo
-3

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
242
321
Total Plays
50
63
Yards / Play
4.8
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.16
Passing Yards
--
246
Comp/Att
14/19(74%)
28/42(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.07
Rushing Yards
132
75
Rush Attempts
31
20
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
17
17
Passing 1st downs
7
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
50%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
40%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+1.54
-4.83
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
--
-4.83
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
--
62
Penalty EPA
--
-6.88

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model56.4%
Spread Pick
NYJ logo
Jets+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-7
Home nfelo
1,498
Away nfelo
1,560
Home Field
+60.5
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+21.1
Net QB Adjustment
-4.4
Home QB Adjustment
+5.1
Away QB Adjustment
+9.5
Market Regression
+6.4
Final Difference
-44.7
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.5
Value
Ptile
10/06
-2.1
33
10/20
-6.2
11
10/24
6.8
88
11/03
1.7
61
11/11
-2.6
31
11/17
8.5
94
11/24
0.3
51
12/01
-1.3
39
12/08
8.4
94
12/12
-0.4
46
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
Value
Ptile
10/06
-7.3
7
10/14
1.6
60
10/20
-1.6
37
10/27
2.3
65
10/31
3.2
71
11/10
-5.9
12
11/17
-0.1
48
12/01
-3.0
28
12/08
3.0
69
12/15
4.3
76

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Jets Defense
Rams logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
19
19
Yards / Game
14
5
Passing Yards / Game
31
4
Rushing Yards / Game
23
17

EPA

EPA / Play
14
24
EPA / Pass
12
19
EPA / Rush
27
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
17
Interceptions / Game
7
27
Fumbles / Game
11
7
Turnover EPA / Game
28
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
14
4th Down Efficiency
7
30
RZ Efficiency
25
19
Jets Offense vs Rams Defense
Jets logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
24
15
Yards / Game
24
25
Passing Yards / Game
5
15
Rushing Yards / Game
31
28

EPA

EPA / Play
19
20
EPA / Pass
18
13
EPA / Rush
21
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
23
Interceptions / Game
11
15
Fumbles / Game
10
25
Turnover EPA / Game
17
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
18
4th Down Efficiency
28
6
RZ Efficiency
21
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
-5
L
L
U
10/20
5
W
L
U
10/24
10
W
W
O
11/03
6
W
W
U
11/11
-8
L
L
U
11/17
6
W
W
O
11/24
-17
L
L
O
12/01
7
W
W
U
12/08
2
W
W
O
12/12
6
W
W
U
NYJ logo

Jets

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
-6
L
L
U
10/14
-3
L
L
O
10/20
-22
L
L
O
10/27
-3
L
L
O
10/31
8
W
W
U
11/10
-25
L
L
U
11/17
-1
L
L
O
12/01
-5
L
L
O
12/08
-6
L
W
O
12/15
7
W
W
O