LARRams
-
23
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
027
DETLions
-
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
4
0
10
17
Lions
0
10
3
14
27
Spread
+8.5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
250
429
Total Plays
55
67
Yards / Play
4.5
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.06
Passing Yards
173
346
Comp/Att
17/25(68%)
32/48(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.14
-0.16
Rushing Yards
77
83
Rush Attempts
26
18
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
28
Passing 1st downs
10
23
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
33%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-23.07
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-25
-9
Sack EPA
-5.27
-2.06
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
65
27
Penalty EPA
-9.24
-10.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model82.8%
Spread Pick
Lions-8.5
Expected Value
+21.5%
Cover Probability
63.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+326
Home nfelo
1,511
Away nfelo
1,293
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+34.2
Home QB Adjustment
+20.5
Away QB Adjustment
-13.8
Market Regression
-10.0
Final Difference
273.1
Model Spread
-11.5
Quarterbacks
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-13.8
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+20.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
27
Yards / Game
22
12
Passing Yards / Game
16
9
Rushing Yards / Game
20
16
EPA
EPA / Play
25
21
EPA / Pass
18
20
EPA / Rush
22
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
24
Interceptions / Game
12
23
Fumbles / Game
9
22
Turnover EPA / Game
16
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
8
4th Down Efficiency
15
32
RZ Efficiency
19
13
Lions Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
14
Yards / Game
3
13
Passing Yards / Game
4
18
Rushing Yards / Game
23
15
EPA
EPA / Play
21
13
EPA / Pass
16
9
EPA / Rush
21
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
20
Interceptions / Game
22
11
Fumbles / Game
26
32
Turnover EPA / Game
2
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
13
4th Down Efficiency
24
6
RZ Efficiency
7
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Lions
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U