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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ lions week 1, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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LAR logo
LARRams
-
23
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
27
DETLions
-
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
4
0
10
17
Lions
0
10
3
14
27

Spread

LAR logo
+8.5

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
250
429
Total Plays
55
67
Yards / Play
4.5
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.06
Passing Yards
173
346
Comp/Att
17/25(68%)
32/48(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.14
-0.16
Rushing Yards
77
83
Rush Attempts
26
18
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
14
28
Passing 1st downs
10
23
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
33%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-23.07
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-25
-9
Sack EPA
-5.27
-2.06
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
65
27
Penalty EPA
-9.24
-10.14

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-11.5

Win Probability

Market76.8%
Model82.8%
Spread Pick
DET logo
Lions-8.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+21.5%
Cover Probability
63.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+326
Home nfelo
1,511
Away nfelo
1,293
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+34.2
Home QB Adjustment
+20.5
Away QB Adjustment
-13.8
Market Regression
-10.0
Final Difference
273.1
Model Spread
-11.5

Quarterbacks

S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-13.8
Value
Ptile
09/11
-6.4
12
09/19
0.7
57
09/25
-6.1
13
10/02
-9.7
2
10/16
-0.4
49
11/06
-4.2
24
11/13
-2.2
35
11/20
-8.9
3
11/27
-1.3
43
12/12
-8.1
5
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.5
Value
Ptile
10/30
6.2
87
11/13
-7.4
8
11/20
7.8
93
11/24
1.6
63
12/04
3.6
75
12/11
-1.6
39
12/18
8.5
95
12/24
10.0
97
01/01
10.4
97
01/07
8.1
94

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Lions Defense
Rams logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
25
27
Yards / Game
22
12
Passing Yards / Game
16
9
Rushing Yards / Game
20
16

EPA

EPA / Play
25
21
EPA / Pass
18
20
EPA / Rush
22
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
24
Interceptions / Game
12
23
Fumbles / Game
9
22
Turnover EPA / Game
16
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
8
4th Down Efficiency
15
32
RZ Efficiency
19
13
Lions Offense vs Rams Defense
Lions logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
16
14
Yards / Game
3
13
Passing Yards / Game
4
18
Rushing Yards / Game
23
15

EPA

EPA / Play
21
13
EPA / Pass
16
9
EPA / Rush
21
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
20
Interceptions / Game
22
11
Fumbles / Game
26
32
Turnover EPA / Game
2
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
13
4th Down Efficiency
24
6
RZ Efficiency
7
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
10
W
W
O
11/06
-6
L
L
U
11/13
1
W
W
U
11/20
-17
L
L
U
11/27
-3
L
L
O
12/04
-26
L
L
U
12/12
-17
L
L
O
12/18
-7
L
P
U
12/24
-27
L
L
U
01/01
-7
L
W
O
DET logo

Lions

5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
35
W
W
O
11/13
-24
L
L
O
11/20
14
W
W
O
11/24
-12
L
L
U
12/04
-14
L
L
U
12/11
6
W
L
O
12/18
1
W
P
O
12/24
28
W
W
U
01/01
-4
L
L
O
01/07
-17
L
L
O