LARRams
2-2
6
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
044
DETLions
0-4
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
3
0
0
6
Lions
3
21
7
7
38
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
341
322
Total Plays
74
61
Yards / Play
4.6
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.33
+0.24
Passing Yards
213
233
Comp/Att
23/45(51%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.58
+0.25
Rushing Yards
128
89
Rush Attempts
28
26
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
20
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
43%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-21.23
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-2
-5
Sack EPA
-1.22
-1.82
Penalties
7
11
Penalty Yards
40
78
Penalty EPA
-5.04
-6.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+59
Home nfelo
1,333
Away nfelo
1,348
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+0.8
Home QB Adjustment
+12.5
Away QB Adjustment
+11.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
S. Hill
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
19
Yards / Game
27
21
Passing Yards / Game
16
28
Rushing Yards / Game
25
24
EPA
EPA / Play
30
11
EPA / Pass
26
6
EPA / Rush
29
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
26
Interceptions / Game
13
19
Fumbles / Game
1
2
Turnover EPA / Game
19
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
19
4th Down Efficiency
11
9
RZ Efficiency
31
23
Lions Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
11
Yards / Game
15
18
Passing Yards / Game
6
18
Rushing Yards / Game
23
17
EPA
EPA / Play
20
5
EPA / Pass
19
7
EPA / Rush
17
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
18
Interceptions / Game
16
19
Fumbles / Game
9
10
Turnover EPA / Game
18
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
3
4th Down Efficiency
7
19
RZ Efficiency
2
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Lions
0-10
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U