nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ lions week 5, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

LAR logo
LARRams
2-2
6
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
44
DETLions
0-4
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
3
0
0
6
Lions
3
21
7
7
38

Spread

DET logo
-3

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
341
322
Total Plays
74
61
Yards / Play
4.6
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.33
+0.24
Passing Yards
213
233
Comp/Att
23/45(51%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.58
+0.25
Rushing Yards
128
89
Rush Attempts
28
26
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
23
20
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
43%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-21.23
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-2
-5
Sack EPA
-1.22
-1.82
Penalties
7
11
Penalty Yards
40
78
Penalty EPA
-5.04
-6.92

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+53
Home nfelo
1,332
Away nfelo
1,353
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+0.8
Home QB Adjustment
+12.5
Away QB Adjustment
+11.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
Value
Ptile
09/12
-5.0
18
09/19
-2.8
30
09/26
-0.4
46
10/03
-1.3
41
S. Hill headshot

S. Hill

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
Value
Ptile
12/28
4.5
81
09/13
-2.5
35
09/20
-2.4
35
09/27
1.3
58
10/04
-3.2
30
10/11
-5.2
20
10/25
-6.5
13
09/19
1.3
56
09/26
-0.3
47
10/03
5.3
84

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Lions Defense
Rams logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
26
19
Yards / Game
27
21
Passing Yards / Game
16
28
Rushing Yards / Game
25
24

EPA

EPA / Play
30
11
EPA / Pass
26
6
EPA / Rush
29
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
26
Interceptions / Game
13
19
Fumbles / Game
1
2
Turnover EPA / Game
19
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
19
4th Down Efficiency
11
9
RZ Efficiency
31
23
Lions Offense vs Rams Defense
Lions logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
15
11
Yards / Game
15
18
Passing Yards / Game
6
18
Rushing Yards / Game
23
17

EPA

EPA / Play
20
5
EPA / Pass
19
7
EPA / Rush
17
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
18
Interceptions / Game
16
19
Fumbles / Game
9
10
Turnover EPA / Game
18
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
3
4th Down Efficiency
7
19
RZ Efficiency
2
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
-10
L
L
O
12/06
-8
L
W
U
12/13
-40
L
L
O
12/20
-3
L
W
U
12/27
-21
L
L
U
01/03
-22
L
L
U
09/12
-4
L
L
U
09/19
-2
L
W
U
09/26
14
W
W
O
10/03
17
W
W
U
DET logo

Lions

0-10
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
-22
L
L
U
12/06
-10
L
W
U
12/13
-45
L
L
O
12/20
-7
L
W
O
12/27
-14
L
P
U
01/03
-14
L
L
O
09/12
-5
L
W
U
09/19
-3
L
W
O
09/26
-14
L
L
U
10/03
-2
L
W
O