LARRams
10-1
30
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
016
DETLions
4-7
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
10
3
14
30
Lions
0
3
10
3
16
Spread
-10
Total
UNDER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
344
310
Total Plays
64
64
Yards / Play
5.4
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.19
Passing Yards
195
208
Comp/Att
17/33(52%)
20/34(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.27
Rushing Yards
149
102
Rush Attempts
29
26
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
23
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
45%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
60%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.55
-9.96
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-12
-37
Sack EPA
-7.73
-11.03
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
105
54
Penalty EPA
-8.40
-8.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market80.1%
Model80.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-217
Home nfelo
1,426
Away nfelo
1,657
Home Field
+63.4
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-44.5
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
+30.7
Net QB Adjustment
-49.8
Home QB Adjustment
-14.7
Away QB Adjustment
+35.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-241.9
Model Spread
+10.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+35.1
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-14.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
16
Yards / Game
3
9
Passing Yards / Game
9
25
Rushing Yards / Game
3
11
EPA
EPA / Play
3
15
EPA / Pass
5
24
EPA / Rush
3
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
14
Interceptions / Game
12
29
Fumbles / Game
6
28
Turnover EPA / Game
28
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
12
4th Down Efficiency
19
11
RZ Efficiency
19
11
Lions Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
18
Yards / Game
24
20
Passing Yards / Game
20
15
Rushing Yards / Game
23
17
EPA
EPA / Play
23
17
EPA / Pass
22
10
EPA / Rush
25
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
26
Interceptions / Game
14
5
Fumbles / Game
18
6
Turnover EPA / Game
17
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
6
4th Down Efficiency
9
21
RZ Efficiency
25
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
9-1
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Lions
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U