LARRams
0-4
3
TBD
Lambeau Field
57°F
23 mph
24
GBPackers
5-0
TBD
Lambeau Field
57°F
23 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
3
0
0
3
Packers
3
21
0
0
24
Spread
-14
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
424
399
Total Plays
72
61
Yards / Play
5.9
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.22
+0.08
Passing Yards
306
309
Comp/Att
29/45(64%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
10.7
EPA / Pass
-0.21
+0.47
Rushing Yards
118
90
Rush Attempts
24
31
Yards / Rush
4.9
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
23%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.51
-1.92
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-22
-7
Sack EPA
-4.74
-1.20
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
45
16
Penalty EPA
-5.97
-1.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.5
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.9%
Spread Pick
Packers-14.0
Expected Value
+3.9%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+382
Home nfelo
1,686
Away nfelo
1,388
Home Field
+35.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+48.4
Home QB Adjustment
+29.2
Away QB Adjustment
-19.2
Market Regression
+24.3
Final Difference
344.5
Model Spread
-14.5
Quarterbacks
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-19.2
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+29.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
22
Yards / Game
31
32
Passing Yards / Game
21
32
Rushing Yards / Game
23
13
EPA
EPA / Play
32
23
EPA / Pass
31
23
EPA / Rush
32
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
10
Interceptions / Game
3
1
Fumbles / Game
27
24
Turnover EPA / Game
13
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
27
4th Down Efficiency
24
3
RZ Efficiency
31
17
Packers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
25
Yards / Game
3
21
Passing Yards / Game
1
14
Rushing Yards / Game
25
31
EPA
EPA / Play
2
16
EPA / Pass
1
20
EPA / Rush
16
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
1
Interceptions / Game
2
23
Fumbles / Game
4
29
Turnover EPA / Game
31
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
18
4th Down Efficiency
12
29
RZ Efficiency
1
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Packers
10-0
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U