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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ packers week 6, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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LAR logo
LARRams
0-4
3
TBD
Lambeau Field
57°F
23 mph
24
GBPackers
5-0
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
57°F
23 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
3
0
0
3
Packers
3
21
0
0
24

Spread

GB logo
-14

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
424
399
Total Plays
72
61
Yards / Play
5.9
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.22
+0.08
Passing Yards
306
309
Comp/Att
29/45(64%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
10.7
EPA / Pass
-0.21
+0.47
Rushing Yards
118
90
Rush Attempts
24
31
Yards / Rush
4.9
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
23%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.51
-1.92
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-22
-7
Sack EPA
-4.74
-1.20
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
45
16
Penalty EPA
-5.97
-1.96

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.5

Win Probability

Market87.3%
Model87.9%
Spread Pick
GB logo
Packers-14.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.9%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+379
Home nfelo
1,685
Away nfelo
1,390
Home Field
+35.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+48.4
Home QB Adjustment
+29.2
Away QB Adjustment
-19.2
Market Regression
+25.4
Final Difference
343.9
Model Spread
-14.5

Quarterbacks

S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-19.2
Value
Ptile
11/28
4.3
78
12/05
-4.1
24
12/12
-4.1
23
12/19
-9.3
4
12/26
5.5
84
01/02
-8.3
6
09/11
-6.4
12
09/19
0.7
57
09/25
-6.1
13
10/02
-9.7
2
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+29.2
Value
Ptile
01/02
0.3
51
01/09
2.7
67
01/15
14.5
100
01/23
0.2
50
02/06
5.6
85
09/08
7.8
93
09/18
5.6
84
09/25
5.5
84
10/02
15.7
100
10/09
4.3
78

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Packers Defense
Rams logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
32
22
Yards / Game
31
32
Passing Yards / Game
21
32
Rushing Yards / Game
23
13

EPA

EPA / Play
32
23
EPA / Pass
31
23
EPA / Rush
32
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
10
Interceptions / Game
3
1
Fumbles / Game
27
24
Turnover EPA / Game
13
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
27
4th Down Efficiency
24
3
RZ Efficiency
31
17
Packers Offense vs Rams Defense
Packers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
2
25
Yards / Game
3
21
Passing Yards / Game
1
14
Rushing Yards / Game
25
31

EPA

EPA / Play
2
16
EPA / Pass
1
20
EPA / Rush
16
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
1
Interceptions / Game
2
23
Fumbles / Game
4
29
Turnover EPA / Game
31
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
18
4th Down Efficiency
12
29
RZ Efficiency
1
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/28
3
W
W
O
12/05
13
W
W
U
12/12
-18
L
L
U
12/19
-14
L
L
U
12/26
8
W
W
O
01/02
-10
L
L
U
09/11
-18
L
L
P
09/19
-12
L
L
O
09/25
-30
L
L
O
10/02
-7
L
L
U
GB logo

Packers

10-0
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
7
W
L
U
01/09
5
W
W
U
01/15
27
W
W
O
01/23
7
W
W
U
02/06
6
W
W
O
09/08
8
W
W
O
09/18
7
W
L
O
09/25
10
W
W
U
10/02
26
W
W
O
10/09
11
W
W
U