LARRams
4-9
12
TBD
Lambeau Field
15°F
4 mph
24
GBPackers
5-8
TBD
Lambeau Field
15°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
6
6
0
12
Packers
3
7
14
0
24
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
156
345
Total Plays
43
68
Yards / Play
3.6
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.08
Passing Yards
84
207
Comp/Att
12/21(57%)
22/30(73%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.03
Rushing Yards
72
138
Rush Attempts
17
35
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
27
Passing 1st downs
6
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
36%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-1.79
-8.13
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-27
-22
Sack EPA
-7.04
-4.59
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
76
80
Penalty EPA
-5.19
-7.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+153
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,493
Home Field
+52.1
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.7
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.3
Time Adj
-14.6
Net QB Adjustment
+56.1
Home QB Adjustment
-21.1
Away QB Adjustment
-77.2
Market Regression
-25.4
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-77.2
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-21.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
16
Yards / Game
32
16
Passing Yards / Game
26
13
Rushing Yards / Game
26
26
EPA
EPA / Play
27
20
EPA / Pass
27
14
EPA / Rush
19
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
26
Interceptions / Game
22
5
Fumbles / Game
11
14
Turnover EPA / Game
4
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
7
4th Down Efficiency
1
23
RZ Efficiency
14
11
Packers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
20
Yards / Game
17
18
Passing Yards / Game
13
11
Rushing Yards / Game
15
13
EPA
EPA / Play
16
19
EPA / Pass
18
26
EPA / Rush
10
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
3
Interceptions / Game
10
7
Fumbles / Game
9
30
Turnover EPA / Game
17
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
21
4th Down Efficiency
27
31
RZ Efficiency
22
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Packers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U