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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ packers week 15, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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LAR logo
LARRams
4-9
12
TBD
Lambeau Field
15°F
4 mph
24
GBPackers
5-8
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
15°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
6
6
0
12
Packers
3
7
14
0
24

Spread

GB logo
-7.5

Total

UNDER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
156
345
Total Plays
43
68
Yards / Play
3.6
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.08
Passing Yards
84
207
Comp/Att
12/21(57%)
22/30(73%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.03
Rushing Yards
72
138
Rush Attempts
17
35
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
13
27
Passing 1st downs
6
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
36%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-1.79
-8.13
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-27
-22
Sack EPA
-7.04
-4.59
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
76
80
Penalty EPA
-5.19
-7.21

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+153
Home nfelo
1,539
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+52.1
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.7
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
-14.6
Net QB Adjustment
+56.1
Home QB Adjustment
-21.1
Away QB Adjustment
-77.2
Market Regression
-25.5
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-77.2
Value
Ptile
12/12
1.5
64
12/25
-10.4
3
01/03
-13.7
1
09/11
-2.6
31
09/18
-3.1
28
09/25
-4.5
21
10/02
-6.7
10
10/09
-6.5
11
11/20
-8.3
5
12/08
-4.5
21
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-21.1
Value
Ptile
10/02
0.6
56
10/09
1.5
63
10/16
-2.6
31
10/23
1.7
65
10/30
1.0
59
11/06
-4.7
20
11/13
4.6
83
11/17
1.7
65
11/27
-4.5
21
12/04
-1.0
45

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Packers Defense
Rams logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
27
16
Yards / Game
32
16
Passing Yards / Game
26
13
Rushing Yards / Game
26
26

EPA

EPA / Play
27
20
EPA / Pass
27
14
EPA / Rush
19
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
26
Interceptions / Game
22
5
Fumbles / Game
11
14
Turnover EPA / Game
4
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
7
4th Down Efficiency
1
23
RZ Efficiency
14
11
Packers Offense vs Rams Defense
Packers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
14
20
Yards / Game
17
18
Passing Yards / Game
13
11
Rushing Yards / Game
15
13

EPA

EPA / Play
16
19
EPA / Pass
18
26
EPA / Rush
10
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
3
Interceptions / Game
10
7
Fumbles / Game
9
30
Turnover EPA / Game
17
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
21
4th Down Efficiency
27
31
RZ Efficiency
22
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
-15
L
L
U
10/09
-12
L
L
U
10/16
14
W
W
U
10/30
-17
L
L
O
11/06
-3
L
P
U
11/13
-10
L
L
O
11/20
-7
L
L
O
11/27
-16
L
W
U
12/04
-4
L
W
O
12/08
1
W
W
U
GB logo

Packers

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
3
W
L
O
10/09
-5
L
L
O
10/16
-17
L
L
U
10/23
-2
L
L
O
10/30
-10
L
W
U
11/06
-6
L
L
U
11/13
3
W
W
O
11/17
-10
L
L
O
11/27
-7
L
L
O
12/04
9
W
W
O