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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ packers week 19, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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LAR logo
LARRams
11-6
18
TBD
Lambeau Field
35°F
13 mph
32
GBPackers
13-3
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
35°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
7
8
0
18
Packers
3
16
6
7
32

Spread

GB logo
-7

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
246
484
Total Plays
51
74
Yards / Play
4.8
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.24
Passing Yards
150
--
Comp/Att
21/28(75%)
23/38(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.41
Rushing Yards
96
188
Rush Attempts
19
36
Yards / Rush
5.1
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.19
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
17
28
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
25%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
8
12
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-26
--
Sack EPA
-8.05
--
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
35
22
Penalty EPA
-3.28
-2.97

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model63.0%
Spread Pick
LAR logo
Rams+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+15.6%
Cover Probability
57.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+29
Home nfelo
1,637
Away nfelo
1,644
Home Field
+9.1
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+1.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+24.1
Home QB Adjustment
+28.3
Away QB Adjustment
+4.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
92.8
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
Value
Ptile
10/18
-1.7
31
10/26
2.9
66
11/01
-2.7
26
11/15
-1.6
32
11/23
8.5
93
11/29
-7.2
7
12/06
8.0
92
12/10
-0.7
40
12/20
-4.2
18
12/27
-6.1
10
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+28.3
Value
Ptile
11/01
5.9
83
11/05
9.8
96
11/15
4.1
74
11/22
6.3
85
11/29
8.1
92
12/06
4.7
77
12/13
8.9
94
12/19
-3.7
20
12/27
5.0
78
01/03
7.2
89

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Packers Defense
Rams logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
15
Yards / Game
17
7
Passing Yards / Game
16
19
Rushing Yards / Game
11
10

EPA

EPA / Play
26
17
EPA / Pass
20
11
EPA / Rush
24
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
29
Interceptions / Game
16
15
Fumbles / Game
19
23
Turnover EPA / Game
9
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
14
4th Down Efficiency
28
19
RZ Efficiency
18
13
Packers Offense vs Rams Defense
Packers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
1
2
Yards / Game
3
1
Passing Yards / Game
24
3
Rushing Yards / Game
8
4

EPA

EPA / Play
1
1
EPA / Pass
1
1
EPA / Rush
5
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
23
Interceptions / Game
1
13
Fumbles / Game
7
16
Turnover EPA / Game
32
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
4
4th Down Efficiency
9
7
RZ Efficiency
1
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
-11
L
L
U
11/15
7
W
W
U
11/23
3
W
W
O
11/29
-3
L
L
U
12/06
10
W
W
O
12/10
21
W
W
U
12/20
-3
L
L
U
12/27
-11
L
L
U
01/03
11
W
W
U
01/09
10
W
W
O
GB logo

Packers

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
-6
L
L
O
11/05
17
W
W
O
11/15
4
W
L
U
11/22
-3
L
L
O
11/29
16
W
W
O
12/06
14
W
W
U
12/13
7
W
L
U
12/19
8
W
L
U
12/27
26
W
W
O
01/03
19
W
W
O