LARRams
3-3
15
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
68°F
4 mph
30
CARPanthers
2-3
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
68°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
3
7
3
13
Panthers
1
10
10
3
24
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
317
282
Total Plays
59
57
Yards / Play
5.4
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.11
Passing Yards
254
180
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
15/17(88%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
10.6
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.71
Rushing Yards
63
102
Rush Attempts
21
38
Yards / Rush
3.0
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
21
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
31%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-13.87
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-20
-24
Sack EPA
-4.59
-4.08
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
68
59
Penalty EPA
-10.74
-8.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+175
Home nfelo
1,520
Away nfelo
1,432
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-8.8
Home QB Adjustment
+0.4
Away QB Adjustment
+9.1
Market Regression
+43.9
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+9.1
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
2
Yards / Game
30
3
Passing Yards / Game
31
17
Rushing Yards / Game
19
3
EPA
EPA / Play
22
6
EPA / Pass
23
5
EPA / Rush
27
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
9
Interceptions / Game
8
8
Fumbles / Game
22
9
Turnover EPA / Game
17
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
12
4th Down Efficiency
27
1
RZ Efficiency
26
3
Panthers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
12
Yards / Game
26
15
Passing Yards / Game
25
28
Rushing Yards / Game
12
9
EPA
EPA / Play
13
9
EPA / Pass
15
17
EPA / Rush
5
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
24
Interceptions / Game
14
19
Fumbles / Game
1
1
Turnover EPA / Game
30
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
16
4th Down Efficiency
2
22
RZ Efficiency
15
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Panthers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U