LARRams
4-7
10
TBD
Gillette Stadium
39°F
8 mph
26
NEPatriots
9-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
39°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
0
3
7
10
Patriots
7
10
6
3
26
Spread
-13.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
162
402
Total Plays
49
75
Yards / Play
3.3
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.31
+0.02
Passing Yards
126
--
Comp/Att
14/32(44%)
33/46(72%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.49
+0.02
Rushing Yards
36
133
Rush Attempts
13
29
Yards / Rush
2.8
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
7
20
Passing 1st downs
5
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
8%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
1
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.34
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-35
--
Sack EPA
-6.07
--
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
30
46
Penalty EPA
-3.54
-7.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-13.5
Model
-15.0
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model88.4%
Spread Pick
Patriots-13.5
Expected Value
+13.7%
Cover Probability
59.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+391
Home nfelo
1,675
Away nfelo
1,429
Home Field
+107.8
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
+30.7
Net QB Adjustment
+37.4
Home QB Adjustment
+60.7
Away QB Adjustment
+23.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
352.7
Model Spread
-15.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+23.3
Value
Ptile
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+60.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
1
Yards / Game
32
8
Passing Yards / Game
23
6
Rushing Yards / Game
31
3
EPA
EPA / Play
32
5
EPA / Pass
32
8
EPA / Rush
31
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
27
Interceptions / Game
30
12
Fumbles / Game
16
10
Turnover EPA / Game
1
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
4
4th Down Efficiency
28
7
RZ Efficiency
24
12
Patriots Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
22
Yards / Game
4
9
Passing Yards / Game
8
13
Rushing Yards / Game
12
16
EPA
EPA / Play
2
17
EPA / Pass
2
18
EPA / Rush
16
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
2
Interceptions / Game
1
22
Fumbles / Game
14
20
Turnover EPA / Game
31
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
10
4th Down Efficiency
6
32
RZ Efficiency
8
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U