LARRams
11-4
20
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
59°F
6 mph
19
BALRavens
8-7
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
59°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
7
0
13
20
Ravens
1
6
3
3
13
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
373
327
Total Plays
57
69
Yards / Play
6.5
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.02
Passing Yards
300
162
Comp/Att
26/36(72%)
20/32(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.17
-0.12
Rushing Yards
73
165
Rush Attempts
20
32
Yards / Rush
3.6
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
33%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.01
-4.24
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-9
-35
Sack EPA
-5.96
-5.02
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
35
--
Penalty EPA
-3.28
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-167
Home nfelo
1,570
Away nfelo
1,661
Home Field
+68.3
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.7
Time Adj
+19.4
Net QB Adjustment
-144.8
Home QB Adjustment
-145.4
Away QB Adjustment
-0.6
Market Regression
-97.5
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
T. Huntley
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-145.4
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
18
Yards / Game
7
24
Passing Yards / Game
1
29
Rushing Yards / Game
27
2
EPA
EPA / Play
9
23
EPA / Pass
2
30
EPA / Rush
31
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
3
Interceptions / Game
26
27
Fumbles / Game
11
27
Turnover EPA / Game
14
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
3
4th Down Efficiency
17
23
RZ Efficiency
17
12
Ravens Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
9
Yards / Game
6
13
Passing Yards / Game
6
27
Rushing Yards / Game
3
5
EPA
EPA / Play
16
6
EPA / Pass
20
9
EPA / Rush
8
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
28
Interceptions / Game
28
5
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
5
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
7
4th Down Efficiency
3
14
RZ Efficiency
13
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Ravens
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U