LARRams
3-6
20
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
027
NOSaints
3-7
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
7
0
6
20
Saints
3
7
14
3
27
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
336
323
Total Plays
62
56
Yards / Play
5.4
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.05
+0.10
Passing Yards
188
235
Comp/Att
16/28(57%)
22/28(79%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.00
+0.32
Rushing Yards
148
88
Rush Attempts
30
24
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.00
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
36%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-35
-39
Sack EPA
-5.32
-7.37
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
55
15
Penalty EPA
-5.17
-0.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model51.0%
Spread Pick
Rams+2.5
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-23
Home nfelo
1,463
Away nfelo
1,523
Home Field
+54.1
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+14.3
Net QB Adjustment
-17.0
Home QB Adjustment
-29.7
Away QB Adjustment
-12.7
Market Regression
-20.5
Final Difference
6.8
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-12.7
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-29.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
9
Yards / Game
32
5
Passing Yards / Game
26
12
Rushing Yards / Game
26
24
EPA
EPA / Play
27
9
EPA / Pass
27
6
EPA / Rush
19
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
18
Interceptions / Game
22
30
Fumbles / Game
11
25
Turnover EPA / Game
4
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
24
4th Down Efficiency
1
7
RZ Efficiency
14
5
Saints Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
20
Yards / Game
18
18
Passing Yards / Game
21
11
Rushing Yards / Game
19
13
EPA
EPA / Play
24
19
EPA / Pass
13
26
EPA / Rush
29
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
3
Interceptions / Game
17
7
Fumbles / Game
25
30
Turnover EPA / Game
5
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
21
4th Down Efficiency
30
31
RZ Efficiency
21
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Saints
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U