LARRams
6-6
13
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
031
NOSaints
9-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
6
0
7
13
Saints
14
1
7
3
25
Spread
-9.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
327
345
Total Plays
59
70
Yards / Play
5.5
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.29
-0.01
Passing Yards
191
213
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
25/40(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.47
+0.14
Rushing Yards
136
132
Rush Attempts
24
29
Yards / Rush
5.7
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
9%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
1
11
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
25%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-19.27
-10.29
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-40
-8
Sack EPA
-5.83
-1.50
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
39
55
Penalty EPA
-4.16
-5.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+240
Home nfelo
1,621
Away nfelo
1,427
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.5
Home QB Adjustment
+2.0
Away QB Adjustment
+18.5
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+18.5
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
10
Yards / Game
27
9
Passing Yards / Game
16
5
Rushing Yards / Game
25
18
EPA
EPA / Play
30
16
EPA / Pass
26
13
EPA / Rush
29
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
30
Interceptions / Game
13
32
Fumbles / Game
1
6
Turnover EPA / Game
19
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
7
4th Down Efficiency
11
28
RZ Efficiency
31
5
Saints Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
11
Yards / Game
5
18
Passing Yards / Game
2
18
Rushing Yards / Game
28
17
EPA
EPA / Play
8
5
EPA / Pass
6
7
EPA / Rush
21
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
18
Interceptions / Game
26
19
Fumbles / Game
20
10
Turnover EPA / Game
13
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
3
4th Down Efficiency
19
19
RZ Efficiency
19
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U