LARRams
14-3
26
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
023
NOSaints
14-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Rams
0
10
7
6
3
26
Saints
13
0
7
3
0
23
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
55
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
378
290
Total Plays
68
64
Yards / Play
5.6
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.05
Passing Yards
301
242
Comp/Att
26/41(63%)
26/41(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.02
Rushing Yards
77
48
Rush Attempts
26
21
Yards / Rush
3.0
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
38%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.52
-3.63
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-7
Sack EPA
-1.97
-1.42
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
64
20
Penalty EPA
-8.59
-2.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+98
Home nfelo
1,637
Away nfelo
1,650
Home Field
+98.8
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+20.7
Net QB Adjustment
+2.8
Home QB Adjustment
+5.4
Away QB Adjustment
+2.6
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.6
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
14
Yards / Game
3
12
Passing Yards / Game
9
17
Rushing Yards / Game
3
2
EPA
EPA / Play
3
11
EPA / Pass
5
21
EPA / Rush
3
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
30
Interceptions / Game
12
15
Fumbles / Game
6
7
Turnover EPA / Game
28
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
23
4th Down Efficiency
19
7
RZ Efficiency
19
23
Saints Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
18
Yards / Game
8
20
Passing Yards / Game
21
15
Rushing Yards / Game
9
17
EPA
EPA / Play
2
17
EPA / Pass
2
10
EPA / Rush
13
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
26
Interceptions / Game
4
5
Fumbles / Game
13
6
Turnover EPA / Game
23
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
6
4th Down Efficiency
2
21
RZ Efficiency
4
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U