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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ saints week 20, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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LAR logo
LARRams
14-3
26
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
23
NOSaints
14-3
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Rams
0
10
7
6
3
26
Saints
13
0
7
3
0
23

Spread

LAR logo
+3

Total

UNDER
55

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
378
290
Total Plays
68
64
Yards / Play
5.6
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.05
Passing Yards
301
242
Comp/Att
26/41(63%)
26/41(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.02
Rushing Yards
77
48
Rush Attempts
26
21
Yards / Rush
3.0
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
38%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.52
-3.63
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-7
Sack EPA
-1.97
-1.42
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
64
20
Penalty EPA
-8.59
-2.05

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+98
Home nfelo
1,633
Away nfelo
1,647
Home Field
+99.9
Base HFA
+58.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
+20.9
Net QB Adjustment
+2.8
Home QB Adjustment
+5.4
Away QB Adjustment
+2.6
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+2.6
Value
Ptile
10/28
-0.5
43
11/04
8.6
93
11/11
5.8
84
11/19
8.4
93
12/02
-5.9
13
12/09
-13.9
1
12/16
-0.1
46
12/23
3.3
71
12/30
3.9
74
01/12
-2.7
30
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.4
Value
Ptile
10/28
-1.2
38
11/04
11.7
98
11/11
10.2
96
11/18
10.7
97
11/22
-0.3
44
11/29
-5.1
18
12/09
1.0
54
12/17
-5.3
17
12/23
3.3
71
01/13
2.2
64

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Saints Defense
Rams logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
2
14
Yards / Game
3
12
Passing Yards / Game
9
17
Rushing Yards / Game
3
2

EPA

EPA / Play
3
11
EPA / Pass
5
21
EPA / Rush
3
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
30
Interceptions / Game
12
15
Fumbles / Game
6
7
Turnover EPA / Game
28
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
23
4th Down Efficiency
19
7
RZ Efficiency
19
23
Saints Offense vs Rams Defense
Saints logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
3
18
Yards / Game
8
20
Passing Yards / Game
21
15
Rushing Yards / Game
9
17

EPA

EPA / Play
2
17
EPA / Pass
2
10
EPA / Rush
13
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
26
Interceptions / Game
4
5
Fumbles / Game
13
6
Turnover EPA / Game
23
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
6
4th Down Efficiency
2
21
RZ Efficiency
4
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/28
2
W
L
U
11/04
-10
L
L
O
11/11
5
W
L
O
11/19
3
W
P
O
12/02
14
W
W
U
12/09
-9
L
L
U
12/16
-7
L
L
O
12/23
22
W
W
U
12/30
16
W
W
O
01/12
8
W
W
O
NO logo

Saints

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/04
10
W
W
O
11/11
37
W
W
O
11/18
41
W
W
U
11/22
14
W
W
U
11/29
-3
L
L
U
12/09
14
W
W
U
12/17
3
W
L
U
12/23
3
W
L
O
12/30
-19
L
L
O
01/13
6
W
L
U