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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ seahawks week 1, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAR logo
LARRams
-
0
TBD
Lumen Field
73°F
5 mph
28
SEASeahawks
-
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
73°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
0
0
0
0
Seahawks
0
14
14
0
28

Spread

SEA logo
-7.5

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
247
446
Total Plays
57
70
Yards / Play
4.3
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.35
+0.12
Passing Yards
170
--
Comp/Att
17/36(47%)
25/36(69%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.32
+0.22
Rushing Yards
77
167
Rush Attempts
18
34
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
13
25
Passing 1st downs
7
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
17%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.71
-12.99
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-21
--
Sack EPA
-3.78
--
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
85
--
Penalty EPA
-10.80
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model71.9%
Spread Pick
LAR logo
Rams+7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+127
Home nfelo
1,443
Away nfelo
1,347
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.6
Home QB Adjustment
-14.1
Away QB Adjustment
-10.6
Market Regression
+1.0
Final Difference
162.9
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

M. Bulger headshot

M. Bulger

Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.6
Value
Ptile
10/26
-2.3
33
11/02
-3.2
26
11/09
-7.6
7
11/16
-1.8
38
11/23
-5.4
13
11/30
-9.2
3
12/07
-1.9
37
12/14
0.1
53
12/21
-3.9
22
12/28
-1.1
44
M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-14.1
Value
Ptile
12/30
-1.4
39
01/05
-1.3
41
01/12
0.3
52
09/07
-8.8
4
09/14
-5.5
12
09/21
0.8
58
10/05
-5.0
15
11/16
-6.3
9
11/23
-4.9
17
11/27
-6.0
10

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Rams logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
32
25
Yards / Game
29
23
Passing Yards / Game
24
5
Rushing Yards / Game
19
14

EPA

EPA / Play
32
21
EPA / Pass
31
28
EPA / Rush
30
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
11
Interceptions / Game
29
22
Fumbles / Game
19
23
Turnover EPA / Game
2
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
18
4th Down Efficiency
29
15
RZ Efficiency
31
21
Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense
Seahawks logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
25
31
Yards / Game
21
29
Passing Yards / Game
7
6
Rushing Yards / Game
26
27

EPA

EPA / Play
25
31
EPA / Pass
24
30
EPA / Rush
31
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
7
Interceptions / Game
24
31
Fumbles / Game
22
7
Turnover EPA / Game
7
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
29
4th Down Efficiency
22
15
RZ Efficiency
30
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
-7
L
W
P
11/02
-21
L
L
P
11/09
-44
L
L
P
11/16
-19
L
L
P
11/23
-24
L
L
P
11/30
-4
L
W
P
12/07
-24
L
L
P
12/14
-3
L
L
P
12/21
-1
L
W
P
12/28
-4
L
W
P
SEA logo

Seahawks

3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
21
W
W
P
11/02
-19
L
L
P
11/09
-2
L
W
P
11/16
-6
L
L
P
11/23
-3
L
P
P
11/27
-25
L
L
P
12/07
-3
L
W
P
12/14
3
W
W
P
12/21
10
W
W
P
12/28
-13
L
L
P