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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ seahawks week 16, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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LAR logo
LARRams
6-8
23
TBD
Lumen Field
37°F
0
17
SEASeahawks
9-5
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
37°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
4
6
0
7
17
Seahawks
0
3
7
7
17

Spread

LAR logo
+11

Total

UNDER
42

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
205
312
Total Plays
53
67
Yards / Play
3.9
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.16
Passing Yards
--
253
Comp/Att
14/23(61%)
25/41(61%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+0.26
Rushing Yards
102
59
Rush Attempts
30
22
Yards / Rush
3.4
2.7
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-1.01
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
14
18
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
42%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-12.71
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-36
Sack EPA
--
-6.41
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
60
83
Penalty EPA
-7.58
-8.33

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.5

Win Probability

Market81.7%
Model82.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+305
Home nfelo
1,665
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+43.5
Base HFA
+59.8
Divisional Adj
-26.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.7
Net QB Adjustment
+83.4
Home QB Adjustment
+37.3
Away QB Adjustment
-46.1
Market Regression
-49.2
Final Difference
269.0
Model Spread
-11.5

Quarterbacks

C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-46.1
Value
Ptile
11/17
-5.1
19
11/24
-7.3
10
12/01
-0.3
48
12/05
-3.3
29
12/15
-11.3
2
12/21
-4.6
22
12/28
0.7
54
11/22
-5.0
15
12/13
-6.3
10
12/17
1.3
60
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+37.3
Value
Ptile
10/11
-3.6
25
10/18
1.3
60
10/22
-6.0
11
11/01
0.7
55
11/15
-1.1
43
11/22
6.8
90
11/29
9.7
96
12/06
11.8
99
12/13
10.9
98
12/20
7.2
92

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Rams logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
29
3
Yards / Game
32
1
Passing Yards / Game
32
6
Rushing Yards / Game
7
3

EPA

EPA / Play
32
8
EPA / Pass
32
6
EPA / Rush
24
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
5
Interceptions / Game
10
19
Fumbles / Game
15
14
Turnover EPA / Game
21
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
7
4th Down Efficiency
31
2
RZ Efficiency
21
3
Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense
Seahawks logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
7
12
Yards / Game
8
23
Passing Yards / Game
18
18
Rushing Yards / Game
3
21

EPA

EPA / Play
3
6
EPA / Pass
1
10
EPA / Rush
12
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
32
Interceptions / Game
7
17
Fumbles / Game
5
5
Turnover EPA / Game
27
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
6
4th Down Efficiency
1
3
RZ Efficiency
15
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
-14
L
L
U
10/25
18
W
W
U
11/01
21
W
W
U
11/08
-3
L
L
U
11/15
-24
L
L
O
11/22
-3
L
P
U
11/29
-24
L
L
U
12/06
-24
L
L
U
12/13
7
W
W
U
12/17
8
W
W
O
SEA logo

Seahawks

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
-3
L
P
O
10/18
-4
L
L
O
10/22
17
W
W
U
11/01
1
W
L
U
11/15
-7
L
L
O
11/22
16
W
W
O
11/29
9
W
W
O
12/06
31
W
W
O
12/13
29
W
W
U
12/20
17
W
W
U