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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ seahawks week 17, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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LAR logo
LARRams
7-8
6
TBD
Lumen Field
34°F
4 mph
16
SEASeahawks
6-9
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
34°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
3
3
0
6
Seahawks
7
0
3
6
16

Spread

SEA logo
+3

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
184
333
Total Plays
54
71
Yards / Play
3.4
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.33
-0.12
Passing Yards
137
--
Comp/Att
19/36(53%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
3.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.33
-0.13
Rushing Yards
47
141
Rush Attempts
15
35
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
10
19
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
14%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.34
-5.76
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-18
--
Sack EPA
-1.59
--
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
46
70
Penalty EPA
-7.04
-6.60

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model58.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-13
Home nfelo
1,351
Away nfelo
1,415
Home Field
+56.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-4.4
Home QB Adjustment
+4.9
Away QB Adjustment
+9.3
Market Regression
-56.9
Final Difference
-56.9
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+9.3
Value
Ptile
10/17
-0.6
45
10/24
-0.9
43
10/31
4.3
77
11/14
2.9
69
11/21
3.7
74
11/28
4.3
78
12/05
-4.1
24
12/12
-4.1
23
12/19
-9.3
4
12/26
5.5
84
C. Whitehurst headshot

C. Whitehurst

Proj. Value
-3.6
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
Value
Ptile
11/07
-4.5
20

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Rams logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
26
27
Yards / Game
27
30
Passing Yards / Game
16
24
Rushing Yards / Game
25
21

EPA

EPA / Play
30
25
EPA / Pass
26
29
EPA / Rush
29
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
17
Interceptions / Game
13
27
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
19
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
26
4th Down Efficiency
11
7
RZ Efficiency
31
11
Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense
Seahawks logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
22
11
Yards / Game
26
18
Passing Yards / Game
25
18
Rushing Yards / Game
31
17

EPA

EPA / Play
22
5
EPA / Pass
24
7
EPA / Rush
24
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
18
Interceptions / Game
20
19
Fumbles / Game
12
10
Turnover EPA / Game
12
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
3
4th Down Efficiency
29
19
RZ Efficiency
26
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/17
3
W
W
U
10/24
-1
L
W
U
10/31
10
W
W
U
11/14
-3
L
W
O
11/21
-17
L
L
O
11/28
3
W
W
O
12/05
13
W
W
U
12/12
-18
L
L
U
12/19
-14
L
L
U
12/26
8
W
W
O
SEA logo

Seahawks

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
12
W
W
U
10/31
-30
L
L
U
11/07
-34
L
L
O
11/14
18
W
W
O
11/21
-15
L
L
O
11/28
-18
L
L
O
12/05
17
W
W
O
12/12
-19
L
L
O
12/19
-16
L
L
O
12/26
-23
L
L
O