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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ seahawks week 17, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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LAR logo
LARRams
7-7
13
TBD
Lumen Field
41°F
1 mph
20
SEASeahawks
10-5
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
41°F
1 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
7
3
3
13
Seahawks
0
3
10
7
20

Spread

LAR logo
+11

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
331
362
Total Plays
61
55
Yards / Play
5.4
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.17
Passing Yards
--
209
Comp/Att
25/42(60%)
15/19(79%)
Yards / Pass
--
11.0
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.36
Rushing Yards
79
153
Rush Attempts
19
30
Yards / Rush
4.2
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
18%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.84
--
Sacks
--
6
Sack Yards
--
-41
Sack EPA
--
-8.35
Penalties
14
10
Penalty Yards
98
80
Penalty EPA
-6.80
-7.94

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+268
Home nfelo
1,632
Away nfelo
1,435
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+25.8
Home QB Adjustment
+43.4
Away QB Adjustment
+17.5
Market Regression
+12.5
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0

Quarterbacks

S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+17.5
Value
Ptile
10/14
5.8
86
10/21
-1.9
37
10/28
-1.8
38
11/11
4.9
81
11/18
-1.2
41
11/25
-1.2
41
12/02
2.7
67
12/09
-3.0
30
12/16
3.5
72
12/23
-3.1
29
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+43.4
Value
Ptile
10/14
4.3
77
10/18
-7.6
7
10/28
3.9
74
11/04
3.3
71
11/11
1.2
58
11/25
6.0
87
12/02
9.2
95
12/09
-1.2
40
12/16
11.9
98
12/23
5.4
83

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Rams logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
25
1
Yards / Game
22
3
Passing Yards / Game
16
2
Rushing Yards / Game
20
11

EPA

EPA / Play
25
5
EPA / Pass
18
5
EPA / Rush
22
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
18
Interceptions / Game
12
6
Fumbles / Game
9
19
Turnover EPA / Game
16
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
21
4th Down Efficiency
15
2
RZ Efficiency
19
6
Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense
Seahawks logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
10
14
Yards / Game
14
13
Passing Yards / Game
23
18
Rushing Yards / Game
4
15

EPA

EPA / Play
2
13
EPA / Pass
4
9
EPA / Rush
5
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
20
Interceptions / Game
5
11
Fumbles / Game
22
32
Turnover EPA / Game
31
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
13
4th Down Efficiency
12
6
RZ Efficiency
15
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

4-5-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
-3
L
W
U
10/21
-10
L
L
O
10/28
-38
L
L
O
11/11
0
T
W
O
11/18
-14
L
L
O
11/25
14
W
W
O
12/02
3
W
W
U
12/09
3
W
W
U
12/16
-14
L
L
O
12/23
15
W
W
U
SEA logo

Seahawks

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
1
W
W
O
10/18
-7
L
W
U
10/28
-4
L
L
O
11/04
10
W
W
O
11/11
21
W
W
U
11/25
-3
L
L
O
12/02
6
W
W
O
12/09
58
W
W
O
12/16
33
W
W
O
12/23
29
W
W
O