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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ seahawks week 17, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAR logo
LARRams
7-8
9
TBD
Lumen Field
40°F
5 mph
27
SEASeahawks
12-3
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
40°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
0
3
6
9
Seahawks
1
6
7
7
21

Spread

SEA logo
-13

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
158
269
Total Plays
51
63
Yards / Play
3.1
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.27
+0.05
Passing Yards
145
158
Comp/Att
21/31(68%)
15/23(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.35
+0.07
Rushing Yards
13
111
Rush Attempts
18
36
Yards / Rush
0.7
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.32
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
11
18
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
1
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
18%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-11.14
--
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-12
-14
Sack EPA
-3.22
-4.19
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
69
65
Penalty EPA
-10.56
-7.00

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.0

Win Probability

Market84.9%
Model84.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+286
Home nfelo
1,699
Away nfelo
1,495
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+36.2
Home QB Adjustment
-5.0
Away QB Adjustment
-41.2
Market Regression
+54.2
Final Difference
300.0
Model Spread
-13.0

Quarterbacks

K. Clemens headshot

K. Clemens

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-41.2
Value
Ptile
12/24
-7.0
10
01/01
-0.5
47
10/28
-8.2
7
11/03
0.1
50
11/10
0.9
56
11/24
-3.9
25
12/01
-3.0
32
12/08
-7.7
9
12/15
2.6
67
12/22
-1.6
42
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.0
Value
Ptile
10/13
5.2
84
10/17
4.0
78
10/28
-6.0
14
11/03
3.9
76
11/10
5.8
85
11/17
2.8
69
12/02
11.2
97
12/08
-2.0
39
12/15
-1.4
43
12/22
-7.1
10

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Rams logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
21
1
Yards / Game
30
1
Passing Yards / Game
31
5
Rushing Yards / Game
19
7

EPA

EPA / Play
22
1
EPA / Pass
23
1
EPA / Rush
27
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
16
Interceptions / Game
8
1
Fumbles / Game
22
13
Turnover EPA / Game
17
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
9
4th Down Efficiency
27
7
RZ Efficiency
26
2
Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense
Seahawks logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
7
12
Yards / Game
22
15
Passing Yards / Game
28
28
Rushing Yards / Game
4
9

EPA

EPA / Play
12
9
EPA / Pass
4
17
EPA / Rush
21
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
24
Interceptions / Game
2
19
Fumbles / Game
21
1
Turnover EPA / Game
29
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
16
4th Down Efficiency
19
22
RZ Efficiency
14
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
25
W
W
O
10/20
-15
L
L
O
10/28
-5
L
W
U
11/03
-7
L
L
O
11/10
30
W
W
O
11/24
21
W
W
O
12/01
-10
L
L
U
12/08
-20
L
L
U
12/15
11
W
W
U
12/22
10
W
W
U
SEA logo

Seahawks

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
7
W
L
U
10/17
12
W
W
O
10/28
5
W
L
U
11/03
3
W
L
O
11/10
23
W
W
U
11/17
21
W
W
O
12/02
27
W
W
U
12/08
-2
L
W
U
12/15
23
W
W
U
12/22
-7
L
L
U