LARRams
2-3
38
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
013
HOUTexans
2-3
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
10
9
0
26
Texans
0
6
0
7
13
Spread
+9
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
216
420
Total Plays
41
73
Yards / Play
5.3
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.34
-0.22
Passing Yards
--
267
Comp/Att
12/16(75%)
27/38(71%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.72
-0.37
Rushing Yards
99
153
Rush Attempts
25
30
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
27
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
43%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
7
14
Red Zone %
100%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-28.85
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-17
Sack EPA
--
-5.33
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
74
95
Penalty EPA
-14.03
-8.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+191
Home nfelo
1,536
Away nfelo
1,418
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.4
Home QB Adjustment
-8.2
Away QB Adjustment
+3.1
Market Regression
+61.3
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
25
Yards / Game
30
6
Passing Yards / Game
31
10
Rushing Yards / Game
19
23
EPA
EPA / Play
22
19
EPA / Pass
23
28
EPA / Rush
27
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
17
Interceptions / Game
8
32
Fumbles / Game
22
31
Turnover EPA / Game
17
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
7
4th Down Efficiency
27
8
RZ Efficiency
26
32
Texans Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
12
Yards / Game
13
15
Passing Yards / Game
6
28
Rushing Yards / Game
20
9
EPA
EPA / Play
30
9
EPA / Pass
29
17
EPA / Rush
22
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
24
Interceptions / Game
28
19
Fumbles / Game
13
1
Turnover EPA / Game
3
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
16
4th Down Efficiency
26
22
RZ Efficiency
26
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U