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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ texans week 6, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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LAR logo
LARRams
2-3
38
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
13
HOUTexans
2-3
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
10
9
0
26
Texans
0
6
0
7
13

Spread

LAR logo
+9

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
216
420
Total Plays
41
73
Yards / Play
5.3
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.34
-0.22
Passing Yards
--
267
Comp/Att
12/16(75%)
27/38(71%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.72
-0.37
Rushing Yards
99
153
Rush Attempts
25
30
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
15
27
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
43%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
7
14
Red Zone %
100%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-28.85
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-17
Sack EPA
--
-5.33
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
74
95
Penalty EPA
-14.03
-8.90

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+191
Home nfelo
1,536
Away nfelo
1,418
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.4
Home QB Adjustment
-8.2
Away QB Adjustment
+3.1
Market Regression
+61.3
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0

Quarterbacks

S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
Value
Ptile
12/02
2.7
67
12/09
-3.0
30
12/16
3.5
72
12/23
-3.1
29
12/30
2.3
64
09/08
6.4
88
09/15
6.7
89
09/22
-4.7
20
09/26
-9.5
4
10/06
1.0
57
M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
Value
Ptile
12/16
1.2
57
12/23
-5.5
15
12/30
-5.7
14
01/05
3.5
72
01/13
5.3
83
09/09
7.6
91
09/15
0.1
50
09/22
-3.7
26
09/29
1.0
57
10/06
-8.3
7

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Texans Defense
Rams logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
21
25
Yards / Game
30
6
Passing Yards / Game
31
10
Rushing Yards / Game
19
23

EPA

EPA / Play
22
19
EPA / Pass
23
28
EPA / Rush
27
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
17
Interceptions / Game
8
32
Fumbles / Game
22
31
Turnover EPA / Game
17
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
7
4th Down Efficiency
27
8
RZ Efficiency
26
32
Texans Offense vs Rams Defense
Texans logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
31
12
Yards / Game
13
15
Passing Yards / Game
6
28
Rushing Yards / Game
20
9

EPA

EPA / Play
30
9
EPA / Pass
29
17
EPA / Rush
22
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
24
Interceptions / Game
28
19
Fumbles / Game
13
1
Turnover EPA / Game
3
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
16
4th Down Efficiency
26
22
RZ Efficiency
26
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/02
3
W
W
U
12/09
3
W
W
U
12/16
-14
L
L
O
12/23
15
W
W
U
12/30
-7
L
W
U
09/08
3
W
L
O
09/15
-7
L
L
O
09/22
-24
L
L
U
09/26
-24
L
L
O
10/06
14
W
W
O
HOU logo

Texans

4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/16
12
W
W
U
12/23
-17
L
L
U
12/30
-12
L
L
U
01/05
6
W
W
U
01/13
-13
L
L
O
09/09
3
W
L
O
09/15
6
W
L
O
09/22
-21
L
L
U
09/29
-3
L
L
O
10/06
-31
L
L
U