LARRams
10-4
30
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
023
MINVikings
7-7
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
6
1
10
24
Vikings
0
3
10
10
23
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
356
361
Total Plays
70
63
Yards / Play
5.1
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.21
Passing Yards
--
295
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
27/38(71%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.05
Rushing Yards
159
66
Rush Attempts
33
22
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
50%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
40%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-13.94
-4.66
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-20
Sack EPA
--
-3.89
Penalties
1
2
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-94
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,656
Home Field
+49.6
Base HFA
+36.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+13.1
Net QB Adjustment
-17.2
Home QB Adjustment
-7.8
Away QB Adjustment
+9.4
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.4
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-7.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
24
Yards / Game
7
30
Passing Yards / Game
1
24
Rushing Yards / Game
27
26
EPA
EPA / Play
9
15
EPA / Pass
2
6
EPA / Rush
31
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
29
Interceptions / Game
26
12
Fumbles / Game
11
18
Turnover EPA / Game
14
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
4
4th Down Efficiency
17
11
RZ Efficiency
17
15
Vikings Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
9
Yards / Game
10
13
Passing Yards / Game
15
27
Rushing Yards / Game
17
5
EPA
EPA / Play
18
6
EPA / Pass
12
9
EPA / Rush
26
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
28
Interceptions / Game
2
5
Fumbles / Game
7
28
Turnover EPA / Game
30
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
7
4th Down Efficiency
15
14
RZ Efficiency
10
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Vikings
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U