BALRavens
1-4
20
TBD
Levi's Stadium
69°F
7 mph
25
SF49ers
1-4
TBD
Levi's Stadium
69°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
6
7
7
20
49ers
6
10
3
6
25
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
420
391
Total Plays
75
56
Yards / Play
5.6
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.10
Passing Yards
--
326
Comp/Att
33/53(62%)
16/28(57%)
Yards / Pass
--
11.6
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.38
Rushing Yards
77
65
Rush Attempts
22
25
Yards / Rush
3.5
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
15
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
31%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.83
--
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-14
Sack EPA
--
-3.55
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
15
25
Penalty EPA
-2.43
-1.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model54.0%
Spread Pick
49ers+2.5
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+1
Home nfelo
1,428
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-11.4
Home QB Adjustment
-8.2
Away QB Adjustment
+3.2
Market Regression
+7.1
Final Difference
-28.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
17
Yards / Game
14
29
Passing Yards / Game
25
1
Rushing Yards / Game
26
29
EPA
EPA / Play
22
27
EPA / Pass
23
29
EPA / Rush
26
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
2
Interceptions / Game
31
26
Fumbles / Game
3
30
Turnover EPA / Game
8
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
18
4th Down Efficiency
15
20
RZ Efficiency
24
21
49ers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
24
Yards / Game
31
10
Passing Yards / Game
23
16
Rushing Yards / Game
21
12
EPA
EPA / Play
30
21
EPA / Pass
29
24
EPA / Rush
9
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
30
Interceptions / Game
11
32
Fumbles / Game
1
15
Turnover EPA / Game
28
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
20
4th Down Efficiency
21
11
RZ Efficiency
31
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U