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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ 49ers week 6, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BAL logo
BALRavens
1-4
20
TBD
Levi's Stadium
69°F
7 mph
25
SF49ers
1-4
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
69°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
6
7
7
20
49ers
6
10
3
6
25

Spread

SF logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
420
391
Total Plays
75
56
Yards / Play
5.6
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.10
Passing Yards
--
326
Comp/Att
33/53(62%)
16/28(57%)
Yards / Pass
--
11.6
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.38
Rushing Yards
77
65
Rush Attempts
22
25
Yards / Rush
3.5
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
25
15
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
31%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.83
--
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-14
Sack EPA
--
-3.55
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
15
25
Penalty EPA
-2.43
-1.76

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model54.0%
Spread Pick
SF logo
49ers+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+2
Home nfelo
1,429
Away nfelo
1,523
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-11.4
Home QB Adjustment
-8.2
Away QB Adjustment
+3.2
Market Regression
+7.0
Final Difference
-27.8
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
Value
Ptile
12/14
2.2
67
12/21
-9.2
5
12/28
5.0
82
01/03
1.7
63
01/10
4.8
81
09/13
-9.3
2
09/20
6.8
90
09/27
6.1
87
10/01
-8.0
4
10/11
2.8
72
C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
Value
Ptile
11/27
-9.9
4
12/07
-9.3
5
12/14
-5.2
19
12/20
9.0
94
12/28
4.7
81
09/14
-0.2
49
09/20
5.0
82
09/27
-10.6
1
10/04
-7.4
6
10/11
3.7
77

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs 49ers Defense
Ravens logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
24
17
Yards / Game
14
29
Passing Yards / Game
25
1
Rushing Yards / Game
26
29

EPA

EPA / Play
22
27
EPA / Pass
23
29
EPA / Rush
26
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
2
Interceptions / Game
31
26
Fumbles / Game
3
30
Turnover EPA / Game
8
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
18
4th Down Efficiency
15
20
RZ Efficiency
24
21
49ers Offense vs Ravens Defense
49ers logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
32
24
Yards / Game
31
10
Passing Yards / Game
23
16
Rushing Yards / Game
21
12

EPA

EPA / Play
30
21
EPA / Pass
29
24
EPA / Rush
9
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
30
Interceptions / Game
11
32
Fumbles / Game
1
15
Turnover EPA / Game
28
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
20
4th Down Efficiency
21
11
RZ Efficiency
31
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
8
W
L
U
12/21
-12
L
L
U
12/28
10
W
L
U
01/03
13
W
W
U
01/10
-4
L
W
O
09/13
-6
L
L
U
09/20
-4
L
L
O
09/27
-4
L
L
O
10/01
3
W
P
U
10/11
-3
L
L
O
SF logo

49ers

2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
-16
L
L
U
12/07
-11
L
L
U
12/14
-10
L
P
U
12/20
-3
L
L
O
12/28
3
W
L
U
09/14
17
W
W
U
09/20
-25
L
L
O
09/27
-40
L
L
O
10/04
-14
L
L
U
10/11
-3
L
W
O