BALRavens
11-3
33
TBD
Levi's Stadium
56°F
8 mph
19
SF49ers
11-3
TBD
Levi's Stadium
56°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
13
17
0
33
49ers
3
7
0
7
17
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
343
429
Total Plays
63
68
Yards / Play
5.4
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.18
Passing Yards
241
308
Comp/Att
23/35(66%)
26/46(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.14
-0.41
Rushing Yards
102
121
Rush Attempts
26
18
Yards / Rush
3.9
6.7
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
21
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
5
2
3rd Down %
36%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
5
Interceptions
0
5
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-25.51
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-11
-28
Sack EPA
-3.32
-6.59
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
67
102
Penalty EPA
-10.12
-14.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+165
Home nfelo
1,728
Away nfelo
1,653
Home Field
+69.7
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+24.4
Net QB Adjustment
+20.5
Home QB Adjustment
+32.4
Away QB Adjustment
+11.9
Market Regression
+24.6
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+4.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+32.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
4
Yards / Game
6
9
Passing Yards / Game
20
17
Rushing Yards / Game
1
5
EPA
EPA / Play
6
18
EPA / Pass
9
8
EPA / Rush
4
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
27
Interceptions / Game
1
2
Fumbles / Game
30
28
Turnover EPA / Game
18
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
27
4th Down Efficiency
2
14
RZ Efficiency
7
11
49ers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
1
Yards / Game
1
4
Passing Yards / Game
1
15
Rushing Yards / Game
4
12
EPA
EPA / Play
1
2
EPA / Pass
1
2
EPA / Rush
5
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
13
Interceptions / Game
12
10
Fumbles / Game
9
20
Turnover EPA / Game
24
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
9
4th Down Efficiency
13
1
RZ Efficiency
1
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U