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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ 49ers week 21, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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BAL logo
BALRavens
13-6
34
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
31
SF49ers
13-4
SF logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
14
7
6
34
49ers
3
3
17
6
29

Spread

BAL logo
+4.5

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
367
468
Total Plays
70
61
Yards / Play
5.2
7.7
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.13
Passing Yards
274
286
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
16/29(55%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
9.9
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.15
Rushing Yards
93
182
Rush Attempts
35
29
Yards / Rush
2.7
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.19
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
56%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
9
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
9
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.38
-9.18
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-13
-16
Sack EPA
-3.96
-4.10
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
--
33
Penalty EPA
--
-5.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+127
Home nfelo
1,673
Away nfelo
1,603
Home Field
+33.5
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+11.5
Home QB Adjustment
+27.9
Away QB Adjustment
+16.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.4
Value
Ptile
11/18
-1.8
38
11/25
-1.5
39
12/02
-5.0
19
12/09
0.7
54
12/16
-2.5
33
12/23
7.5
91
12/30
-4.9
19
01/06
2.3
64
01/12
7.1
90
01/20
3.2
71
C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+27.9
Value
Ptile
11/19
5.8
85
11/25
2.6
66
12/02
3.4
72
12/09
2.7
66
12/16
3.8
73
12/23
1.1
57
12/30
5.2
82
01/12
17.8
100
01/20
3.3
71

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs 49ers Defense
Ravens logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
3
Yards / Game
11
4
Passing Yards / Game
17
14
Rushing Yards / Game
11
3

EPA

EPA / Play
10
8
EPA / Pass
13
10
EPA / Rush
17
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
12
Interceptions / Game
4
19
Fumbles / Game
12
14
Turnover EPA / Game
27
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
6
4th Down Efficiency
26
19
RZ Efficiency
6
27
49ers Offense vs Ravens Defense
49ers logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
7
12
Yards / Game
5
23
Passing Yards / Game
21
25
Rushing Yards / Game
2
22

EPA

EPA / Play
5
16
EPA / Pass
7
14
EPA / Rush
1
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
19
Interceptions / Game
2
13
Fumbles / Game
15
11
Turnover EPA / Game
29
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
11
4th Down Efficiency
8
13
RZ Efficiency
16
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/18
3
W
P
U
11/25
3
W
W
U
12/02
-3
L
L
O
12/09
-3
L
L
O
12/16
-17
L
L
O
12/23
19
W
W
U
12/30
-6
L
L
U
01/06
15
W
W
U
01/12
3
W
W
O
01/20
15
W
W
U
SF logo

49ers

7-2-1
SU
6-4
ATS
9-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/11
0
T
L
O
11/19
25
W
W
O
11/25
10
W
W
O
12/02
-3
L
L
U
12/09
14
W
W
O
12/16
7
W
W
O
12/23
-29
L
L
O
12/30
14
W
L
O
01/12
14
W
W
O
01/20
4
W
W
O