BALRavens
13-6
34
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
031
SF49ers
13-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
14
7
6
34
49ers
3
3
17
6
29
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
367
468
Total Plays
70
61
Yards / Play
5.2
7.7
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.13
Passing Yards
274
286
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
16/29(55%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
9.9
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.15
Rushing Yards
93
182
Rush Attempts
35
29
Yards / Rush
2.7
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.19
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
56%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
9
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
9
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.38
-9.18
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-13
-16
Sack EPA
-3.96
-4.10
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
--
33
Penalty EPA
--
-5.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+126
Home nfelo
1,675
Away nfelo
1,606
Home Field
+33.5
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+11.5
Home QB Adjustment
+27.9
Away QB Adjustment
+16.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+16.4
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+27.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
3
Yards / Game
11
4
Passing Yards / Game
17
14
Rushing Yards / Game
11
3
EPA
EPA / Play
10
8
EPA / Pass
13
10
EPA / Rush
17
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
12
Interceptions / Game
4
19
Fumbles / Game
12
14
Turnover EPA / Game
27
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
6
4th Down Efficiency
26
19
RZ Efficiency
6
27
49ers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
12
Yards / Game
5
23
Passing Yards / Game
21
25
Rushing Yards / Game
2
22
EPA
EPA / Play
5
16
EPA / Pass
7
14
EPA / Rush
1
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
19
Interceptions / Game
2
13
Fumbles / Game
15
11
Turnover EPA / Game
29
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
11
4th Down Efficiency
8
13
RZ Efficiency
16
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
7-2-1
SU
6-4
ATS
9-1
O/U