BALRavens
-
20
TBD
Paycor Stadium
68°F
9 mph
0
CINBengals
-
TBD
Paycor Stadium
68°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
14
3
0
20
Bengals
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
268
221
Total Plays
60
58
Yards / Play
4.5
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.57
Passing Yards
111
144
Comp/Att
9/17(53%)
16/31(52%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
4.6
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.95
Rushing Yards
157
77
Rush Attempts
42
22
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
14
Passing 1st downs
5
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
43%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
1
4
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.73
-24.95
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-10
-26
Sack EPA
-1.94
-9.85
Penalties
11
9
Penalty Yards
85
66
Penalty EPA
-8.02
-7.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+34
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+51.5
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.2
Home QB Adjustment
+0.5
Away QB Adjustment
+0.7
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
17
Yards / Game
27
18
Passing Yards / Game
31
8
Rushing Yards / Game
10
30
EPA
EPA / Play
14
14
EPA / Pass
20
10
EPA / Rush
14
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
13
Interceptions / Game
17
18
Fumbles / Game
1
28
Turnover EPA / Game
17
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
24
4th Down Efficiency
4
16
RZ Efficiency
9
5
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
5
Yards / Game
32
12
Passing Yards / Game
18
12
Rushing Yards / Game
31
16
EPA
EPA / Play
26
2
EPA / Pass
21
2
EPA / Rush
28
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
25
Interceptions / Game
13
1
Fumbles / Game
21
4
Turnover EPA / Game
12
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
8
4th Down Efficiency
21
11
RZ Efficiency
11
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
4-5-1
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U