BALRavens
1-0
10
TBD
Paycor Stadium
78°F
1 mph
15
CINBengals
0-1
TBD
Paycor Stadium
78°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
0
7
3
10
Bengals
0
6
3
6
15
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
259
253
Total Plays
63
67
Yards / Play
4.1
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.26
-0.16
Passing Yards
150
159
Comp/Att
17/39(44%)
16/35(46%)
Yards / Pass
3.8
4.5
EPA / Pass
-0.53
-0.07
Rushing Yards
109
94
Rush Attempts
23
31
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
14
Passing 1st downs
7
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
27%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
18
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-14.02
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-4
-8
Sack EPA
-0.61
+1.65
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
45
56
Penalty EPA
-4.16
-7.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-95
Home nfelo
1,453
Away nfelo
1,596
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+14.6
Home QB Adjustment
+4.5
Away QB Adjustment
-10.1
Market Regression
-18.5
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.1
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
24
Yards / Game
22
14
Passing Yards / Game
15
10
Rushing Yards / Game
16
19
EPA
EPA / Play
10
28
EPA / Pass
10
20
EPA / Rush
18
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
25
Interceptions / Game
3
14
Fumbles / Game
17
17
Turnover EPA / Game
23
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
13
4th Down Efficiency
19
3
RZ Efficiency
22
6
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
3
Yards / Game
20
4
Passing Yards / Game
24
12
Rushing Yards / Game
27
3
EPA
EPA / Play
19
6
EPA / Pass
17
8
EPA / Rush
31
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
9
Interceptions / Game
24
7
Fumbles / Game
26
7
Turnover EPA / Game
6
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
12
4th Down Efficiency
5
18
RZ Efficiency
23
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Bengals
4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U