BALRavens
2-2
41
TBD
Paycor Stadium
81°F
10 mph
38
CINBengals
1-3
TBD
Paycor Stadium
81°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Ravens
7
7
7
17
3
41
Bengals
0
15
7
14
0
36
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
520
444
Total Plays
77
66
Yards / Play
6.8
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.31
+0.26
Passing Yards
345
371
Comp/Att
26/42(62%)
30/39(77%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
9.5
EPA / Pass
+0.51
+0.61
Rushing Yards
175
73
Rush Attempts
34
24
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
23
Passing 1st downs
18
19
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
67%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
10
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
83%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
5
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.49
-3.45
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-3
-21
Sack EPA
-1.45
-5.02
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
21
24
Penalty EPA
-8.55
-4.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-54
Home nfelo
1,563
Away nfelo
1,639
Home Field
+41.5
Base HFA
+46.3
Divisional Adj
-20.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-20.3
Home QB Adjustment
+6.1
Away QB Adjustment
+26.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+26.4
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
25
Yards / Game
1
25
Passing Yards / Game
13
13
Rushing Yards / Game
1
19
EPA
EPA / Play
1
28
EPA / Pass
1
17
EPA / Rush
1
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
10
Interceptions / Game
1
9
Fumbles / Game
15
8
Turnover EPA / Game
27
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
23
4th Down Efficiency
15
19
RZ Efficiency
1
30
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
8
Yards / Game
9
8
Passing Yards / Game
1
32
Rushing Yards / Game
30
1
EPA
EPA / Play
6
19
EPA / Pass
5
11
EPA / Rush
14
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
30
Interceptions / Game
9
21
Fumbles / Game
27
29
Turnover EPA / Game
18
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
20
4th Down Efficiency
21
2
RZ Efficiency
5
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-4-2
O/U
Bengals
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
8-2
O/U