BALRavens
5-2
24
TBD
Paycor Stadium
62°F
6 mph
27
CINBengals
3-2
TBD
Paycor Stadium
62°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
6
8
10
24
Bengals
7
0
10
10
27
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
296
350
Total Plays
62
64
Yards / Play
4.8
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.01
Passing Yards
187
239
Comp/Att
17/34(50%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.29
-0.06
Rushing Yards
109
111
Rush Attempts
27
34
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.25
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.49
-13.78
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-27
Sack EPA
-1.35
-9.78
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
51
40
Penalty EPA
-1.83
-3.54
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model55.0%
Spread Pick
Bengals+3.0
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+1
Home nfelo
1,539
Away nfelo
1,557
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.8
Home QB Adjustment
+3.9
Away QB Adjustment
+18.7
Market Regression
-69.9
Final Difference
-35.2
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+18.7
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
13
Yards / Game
12
23
Passing Yards / Game
30
4
Rushing Yards / Game
9
20
EPA
EPA / Play
5
15
EPA / Pass
6
13
EPA / Rush
13
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
30
Interceptions / Game
10
6
Fumbles / Game
7
28
Turnover EPA / Game
26
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
7
4th Down Efficiency
5
22
RZ Efficiency
14
7
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
7
Yards / Game
18
13
Passing Yards / Game
31
27
Rushing Yards / Game
6
3
EPA
EPA / Play
15
13
EPA / Pass
23
23
EPA / Rush
3
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
32
Interceptions / Game
19
21
Fumbles / Game
18
9
Turnover EPA / Game
10
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
17
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
10
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bengals
5-4-1
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U