BALRavens
4-3
7
TBD
Paycor Stadium
67°F
7 mph
17
CINBengals
5-2
TBD
Paycor Stadium
67°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
0
0
7
7
Bengals
14
3
0
0
17
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
215
369
Total Plays
53
73
Yards / Play
4.1
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.00
Passing Yards
160
223
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.32
+0.06
Rushing Yards
55
146
Rush Attempts
17
39
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
10%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
1
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
18
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.78
-3.63
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-35
-1
Sack EPA
-5.66
-0.91
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
80
40
Penalty EPA
-7.80
-2.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-105
Home nfelo
1,484
Away nfelo
1,641
Home Field
+52.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.4
Home QB Adjustment
+19.9
Away QB Adjustment
+20.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+20.2
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+19.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
5
Yards / Game
14
5
Passing Yards / Game
19
12
Rushing Yards / Game
4
8
EPA
EPA / Play
11
7
EPA / Pass
14
10
EPA / Rush
4
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
22
Interceptions / Game
13
11
Fumbles / Game
6
32
Turnover EPA / Game
27
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
13
4th Down Efficiency
24
12
RZ Efficiency
15
9
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
2
Yards / Game
24
2
Passing Yards / Game
21
14
Rushing Yards / Game
7
3
EPA
EPA / Play
19
4
EPA / Pass
16
3
EPA / Rush
12
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
17
Interceptions / Game
8
5
Fumbles / Game
21
11
Turnover EPA / Game
17
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
8
4th Down Efficiency
4
10
RZ Efficiency
21
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-3-3
O/U
Bengals
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-3-3
O/U