BALRavens
8-6
21
TBD
Paycor Stadium
52°F
041
CINBengals
8-6
TBD
Paycor Stadium
52°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
7
0
7
21
Bengals
10
21
3
7
41
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
334
575
Total Plays
57
70
Yards / Play
5.9
8.2
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.36
Passing Yards
295
498
Comp/Att
28/40(70%)
37/46(80%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
10.8
EPA / Pass
+0.36
+0.71
Rushing Yards
39
77
Rush Attempts
16
21
Yards / Rush
2.4
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.54
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
33
Passing 1st downs
19
26
Rushing 1st downs
2
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
55%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
100%
57%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.27
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-9
-27
Sack EPA
-1.11
-4.52
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
27
45
Penalty EPA
-3.40
-2.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+142
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,590
Home Field
+32.8
Base HFA
+36.5
Divisional Adj
-16.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+171.0
Home QB Adjustment
+2.3
Away QB Adjustment
-168.7
Market Regression
+90.4
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
J. Johnson
Proj. Value
-4.7
Team Elo Adj
-168.7
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
13
Yards / Game
6
19
Passing Yards / Game
6
28
Rushing Yards / Game
3
7
EPA
EPA / Play
16
10
EPA / Pass
20
14
EPA / Rush
8
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
1
Interceptions / Game
28
8
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
5
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
20
4th Down Efficiency
3
2
RZ Efficiency
13
17
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
18
Yards / Game
14
24
Passing Yards / Game
3
29
Rushing Yards / Game
24
2
EPA
EPA / Play
12
23
EPA / Pass
9
30
EPA / Rush
22
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
3
Interceptions / Game
11
27
Fumbles / Game
2
27
Turnover EPA / Game
17
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
3
4th Down Efficiency
5
23
RZ Efficiency
23
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bengals
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U