BALRavens
11-4
24
TBD
Paycor Stadium
42°F
19 mph
16
CINBengals
9-6
TBD
Paycor Stadium
42°F
19 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
10
7
0
7
24
Bengals
3
0
7
6
16
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
347
336
Total Plays
52
69
Yards / Play
6.7
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.01
Passing Yards
126
231
Comp/Att
15/19(79%)
22/44(50%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.19
-0.10
Rushing Yards
221
105
Rush Attempts
32
24
Yards / Rush
6.9
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.25
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
19
Passing 1st downs
5
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
38%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.05
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-4
-1
Sack EPA
-1.45
-1.02
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
59
35
Penalty EPA
-5.05
-4.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-105
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,626
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.3
Home QB Adjustment
+5.5
Away QB Adjustment
-0.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.8
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
12
Yards / Game
15
6
Passing Yards / Game
13
19
Rushing Yards / Game
12
12
EPA
EPA / Play
15
10
EPA / Pass
12
11
EPA / Rush
18
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
27
Interceptions / Game
5
29
Fumbles / Game
23
9
Turnover EPA / Game
23
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
14
4th Down Efficiency
12
8
RZ Efficiency
17
29
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
3
Yards / Game
22
3
Passing Yards / Game
19
4
Rushing Yards / Game
21
3
EPA
EPA / Play
19
3
EPA / Pass
18
2
EPA / Rush
21
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
16
Interceptions / Game
19
12
Fumbles / Game
4
10
Turnover EPA / Game
26
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
3
4th Down Efficiency
25
20
RZ Efficiency
25
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
4-4-2
ATS
6-4
O/U