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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ bengals week 17, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BAL logo
BALRavens
10-5
17
TBD
Paycor Stadium
26°F
8 mph
23
CINBengals
9-6
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
26°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
0
0
10
17
Bengals
0
7
6
4
17

Spread

CIN logo
-4.5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
352
189
Total Plays
83
49
Yards / Play
4.2
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.07
Passing Yards
146
142
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
15/26(58%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.38
-0.16
Rushing Yards
206
47
Rush Attempts
46
21
Yards / Rush
4.5
2.2
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.42
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
23
9
Passing 1st downs
8
5
Rushing 1st downs
12
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
28%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.78
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-37
-1
Sack EPA
-6.07
-1.93
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
102
40
Penalty EPA
-11.37
-7.87

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model64.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+38
Home nfelo
1,560
Away nfelo
1,535
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-21.5
Home QB Adjustment
-13.6
Away QB Adjustment
+7.8
Market Regression
+11.2
Final Difference
100.0
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
Value
Ptile
10/14
1.6
60
10/21
-9.1
4
11/04
-1.0
42
11/11
8.0
92
11/18
-1.8
38
11/25
-1.5
39
12/02
-5.0
19
12/09
0.7
54
12/16
-2.5
33
12/23
7.5
91
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-13.6
Value
Ptile
10/14
3.0
70
10/21
-4.2
23
11/04
-1.7
38
11/11
6.9
90
11/18
4.5
79
11/25
-0.1
49
12/02
-0.6
46
12/09
-6.2
12
12/13
-7.4
8
12/23
-7.6
7

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Ravens logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
9
8
Yards / Game
11
8
Passing Yards / Game
17
8
Rushing Yards / Game
11
14

EPA

EPA / Play
10
4
EPA / Pass
13
3
EPA / Rush
17
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
7
Interceptions / Game
4
17
Fumbles / Game
12
4
Turnover EPA / Game
27
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
10
4th Down Efficiency
26
7
RZ Efficiency
6
5
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Bengals logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
13
12
Yards / Game
23
23
Passing Yards / Game
22
25
Rushing Yards / Game
18
22

EPA

EPA / Play
17
16
EPA / Pass
23
14
EPA / Rush
8
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
19
Interceptions / Game
18
13
Fumbles / Game
18
11
Turnover EPA / Game
19
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
11
4th Down Efficiency
3
13
RZ Efficiency
18
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
2
W
L
O
10/21
-30
L
L
O
11/04
10
W
W
U
11/11
35
W
W
O
11/18
3
W
P
U
11/25
3
W
W
U
12/02
-3
L
L
O
12/09
-3
L
L
O
12/16
-17
L
L
O
12/23
19
W
W
U
CIN logo

Bengals

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
-10
L
L
O
10/21
-7
L
L
U
11/04
-8
L
L
O
11/11
18
W
W
U
11/18
22
W
W
U
11/25
24
W
W
U
12/02
7
W
W
U
12/09
-1
L
L
U
12/13
21
W
W
O
12/23
3
W
W
U