BALRavens
10-5
17
TBD
Paycor Stadium
26°F
8 mph
23
CINBengals
9-6
TBD
Paycor Stadium
26°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
0
0
10
17
Bengals
0
7
6
4
17
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
352
189
Total Plays
83
49
Yards / Play
4.2
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.07
Passing Yards
146
142
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
15/26(58%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.38
-0.16
Rushing Yards
206
47
Rush Attempts
46
21
Yards / Rush
4.5
2.2
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.42
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
9
Passing 1st downs
8
5
Rushing 1st downs
12
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
28%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.78
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-37
-1
Sack EPA
-6.07
-1.93
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
102
40
Penalty EPA
-11.37
-7.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model63.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+36
Home nfelo
1,563
Away nfelo
1,540
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-21.5
Home QB Adjustment
-13.6
Away QB Adjustment
+7.8
Market Regression
+10.8
Final Difference
99.6
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-13.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
8
Yards / Game
11
8
Passing Yards / Game
17
8
Rushing Yards / Game
11
14
EPA
EPA / Play
10
4
EPA / Pass
13
3
EPA / Rush
17
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
7
Interceptions / Game
4
17
Fumbles / Game
12
4
Turnover EPA / Game
27
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
10
4th Down Efficiency
26
7
RZ Efficiency
6
5
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
12
Yards / Game
23
23
Passing Yards / Game
22
25
Rushing Yards / Game
18
22
EPA
EPA / Play
17
16
EPA / Pass
23
14
EPA / Rush
8
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
19
Interceptions / Game
18
13
Fumbles / Game
18
11
Turnover EPA / Game
19
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
11
4th Down Efficiency
3
13
RZ Efficiency
18
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U