BALRavens
8-7
10
TBD
Paycor Stadium
40°F
6 mph
27
CINBengals
5-9
TBD
Paycor Stadium
40°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
0
0
7
10
Bengals
14
6
0
7
27
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
335
371
Total Plays
70
67
Yards / Play
4.8
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.11
Passing Yards
263
218
Comp/Att
33/51(65%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.15
Rushing Yards
72
153
Rush Attempts
16
38
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.26
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
25
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
8
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
8
Red Zone %
25%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.39
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-16
-8
Sack EPA
-5.61
-2.41
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
41
20
Penalty EPA
-5.53
-1.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model53.9%
Spread Pick
Bengals+2.5
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+3
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,549
Home Field
+51.5
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.7
Home QB Adjustment
-0.9
Away QB Adjustment
+4.8
Market Regression
-54.8
Final Difference
-27.4
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
7
Yards / Game
17
17
Passing Yards / Game
14
25
Rushing Yards / Game
28
21
EPA
EPA / Play
19
22
EPA / Pass
26
14
EPA / Rush
15
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
7
Interceptions / Game
21
4
Fumbles / Game
2
27
Turnover EPA / Game
19
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
16
4th Down Efficiency
26
14
RZ Efficiency
19
8
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
9
Yards / Game
12
7
Passing Yards / Game
9
16
Rushing Yards / Game
13
5
EPA
EPA / Play
10
6
EPA / Pass
12
11
EPA / Rush
5
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
19
Interceptions / Game
6
1
Fumbles / Game
7
8
Turnover EPA / Game
27
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
2
4th Down Efficiency
3
25
RZ Efficiency
18
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bengals
3-6-1
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U