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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ bengals week 17, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BAL logo
BALRavens
8-7
10
TBD
Paycor Stadium
40°F
6 mph
27
CINBengals
5-9
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
40°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
0
0
7
10
Bengals
14
6
0
7
27

Spread

CIN logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
335
371
Total Plays
70
67
Yards / Play
4.8
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.11
Passing Yards
263
218
Comp/Att
33/51(65%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.15
Rushing Yards
72
153
Rush Attempts
16
38
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.26
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
22
25
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
8
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
8
Red Zone %
25%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.39
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-16
-8
Sack EPA
-5.61
-2.41
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
41
20
Penalty EPA
-5.53
-1.52

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model54.1%
Spread Pick
CIN logo
Bengals+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-0
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,551
Home Field
+52.1
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
-26.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.7
Home QB Adjustment
-0.9
Away QB Adjustment
+4.8
Market Regression
-54.8
Final Difference
-28.6
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
Value
Ptile
10/16
-2.5
29
10/23
-6.9
8
11/06
-3.4
24
11/10
1.8
63
11/20
1.6
61
11/27
0.2
50
12/04
11.7
99
12/12
4.3
80
12/18
-4.5
16
12/25
0.7
55
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.9
Value
Ptile
10/16
4.3
80
10/23
1.7
62
10/30
1.8
63
11/14
-4.0
20
11/20
-2.4
30
11/27
-1.3
39
12/04
7.9
92
12/11
-1.1
40
12/18
-2.4
31
12/24
-0.7
43

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Ravens logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
20
7
Yards / Game
17
17
Passing Yards / Game
14
25
Rushing Yards / Game
28
21

EPA

EPA / Play
19
22
EPA / Pass
26
14
EPA / Rush
15
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
7
Interceptions / Game
21
4
Fumbles / Game
2
27
Turnover EPA / Game
19
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
16
4th Down Efficiency
26
14
RZ Efficiency
19
8
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Bengals logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
24
9
Yards / Game
12
7
Passing Yards / Game
9
16
Rushing Yards / Game
13
5

EPA

EPA / Play
10
6
EPA / Pass
12
11
EPA / Rush
5
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
19
Interceptions / Game
6
1
Fumbles / Game
7
8
Turnover EPA / Game
27
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
2
4th Down Efficiency
3
25
RZ Efficiency
18
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
-4
L
L
O
10/23
-8
L
L
U
11/06
7
W
W
U
11/10
21
W
W
U
11/20
-10
L
L
U
11/27
5
W
W
U
12/04
32
W
W
O
12/12
-7
L
L
O
12/18
1
W
L
O
12/25
-4
L
W
O
CIN logo

Bengals

3-6-1
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
-18
L
L
O
10/23
14
W
W
O
10/30
0
T
L
O
11/14
-1
L
L
U
11/20
-4
L
L
U
11/27
-5
L
L
U
12/04
18
W
W
O
12/11
13
W
W
U
12/18
-4
L
L
U
12/24
-2
L
W
U